Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Wednesday 11/05

The bet on Minnesota Vikings with a 4.5-point spread is backed by several compelling statistics. Home or away, the Vikings have a better EPA (Expected Points Added) differential than the home team with 9.51 compared to the home team's 6.02. This suggests that the Vikings are more efficient in turning plays into points. Additionally, the Vikings have a higher explosive rate at 0.246 compared to the home team's 0.227, indicating a greater potential for big plays. Also, the Vikings have a lesser turnover differential at -0.4 against the home team's -1.2, promising fewer self-inflicted mistakes. Although both teams share a similar 2-3 record over the last five games, the Vikings show stronger offensive and defensive stats, making them a solid pick to cover a 4.5-point spread.

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA +4.5 Point Spread (-115)

The bet on the Minnesota Vikings with a 4.5 spread appears statistically sound considering the last five games' performance data. Despite both teams having a similar overall record (2-3), the Vikings have shown a better performance when playing away. They have an average score of 28.8 compared to the home team's 26.6, resulting in a point differential of 6.2. The Vikings exhibit better offensive efficiency, with a higher expected points added (EPA) for both passing (3.33) and rushing (7.58), considerably outperforming the home team's EPA. Additionally, the Vikings' explosive rate for (0.246) exceeds the home team's (0.227), indicating a higher potential for big plays. Finally, the Vikings have a lower turnover rate when playing away, further enhancing their chances of covering the spread. Therefore, the Vikings' superior offensive performance and ball control make them a favorable bet with a 4.5 spread.

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -6 Point Spread (-108)

The Indianapolis Colts -6 spread is a compelling bet due to the Colts' strong recent performance, particularly in home games. In the last 5 home games, the Colts have scored an average of 34.2 points while only allowing 16.6 points against, resulting in a point differential of 17.6. This is significantly higher than the spread of -6, indicating a strong performance potential. The Colts' efficient play-action (EPA) differential in home games is also impressive at 19.49, further suggesting a strong offensive and defensive performance. Moreover, the Colts' home turnover differential of 1.4 suggests they are effective in capitalizing on opponent's errors. Conversely, the away team's overall performance in the last 5 games is weaker with a negative point differential of -3.6 and a disappointing EPA differential of -4.83. Thus, based on these statistics, betting on the Colts to beat the spread seems statistically sound.

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -5.5 Point Spread (-110)

The bet on the Indianapolis Colts with a -5.5 spread is statistically justified by their superior performance in the last five games. The Colts have an impressive home record of 4-1 overall and a perfect 5-0 on home advantage (ha) games. They've outscored their opponents by an average of 13.8 points overall and 17.6 points at home, exceeding the -5.5 point spread. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) for both passing and rushing plays has been positive, indicating efficiency on offense. Furthermore, their EPA against is negative, suggesting a strong defense. The Colts also have a higher explosive rate, implying more big-play potential. In contrast, the away team has a negative point differential and EPA differential in the last five games. Their away performance is particularly weak, with only 1 win in the last 5 games. This all points to a strong rationale for betting on the Colts to cover a -5.5

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders : NA -9.5 Point Spread (-105)

The Denver Broncos have shown strong recent performance, with a 5-0 record in their last 5 games, both overall and at home. This includes scoring an average of 32.6 points at home and allowing just 14.2, a point differential of 18.4. Meanwhile, their opponents have struggled, with a 1-4 record in their last 5 games, scoring an average of only 15 points on the road while allowing 27, a point differential of -12. Furthermore, the Broncos excel in offensive and defensive efficiency, with a superior home expected points added (EPA) differential of 18.65, compared to their opponents' away EPA differential of -10.91. They also boast better explosive play rates and fewer turnovers. Given these statistics, the Broncos should comfortably cover the -9.5 spread. The model edge of 0.089 suggests that the odds offered are better than the implied probability, providing additional value.