Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Sunday 12/14

The betting rationale for the New England Patriots in the head-to-head (h2h) market is justified by the team's solid home and overall performance statistics. In the last five games, the Patriots have maintained a winning streak (5-0) both at home and overall. They have also outperformed their opponents by a significant margin, with an overall point difference of 8.6 and home advantage of 16 points. Their offensive and defensive efficiency, as measured by expected points added (EPA), is also positive and higher than their opponents', indicating better scoring opportunities and stronger defense. Furthermore, they've consistently gained more total yards than their opponents and kept turnovers to a minimum. Although their record against the opponent is 3-2, their recent form indicates a strong possibility of a win. Comparatively, the away team has struggled with a lower point difference, higher turnovers, and a weaker away record (2-3). Thus, betting on the Patriots seems like a statistically sound

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 50.5 Total Points (-110)

The reasoning for the bet on Over 50.5 in the 'totals' market is based on the scoring trends and offensive performance of both teams. The home team has averaged 28 points over their last five games, and the away team has averaged 21.8 points, totaling 49.8, which is just below the Over/Under line. However, considering home games specifically, the home team's average score increases to 31.4 points, and the away team's to 27.6 points, for a total of 59 points, well above the line. Furthermore, both teams have shown an ability to create explosive plays, with the home team having an explosive rate of 23% and the away team 20.2%, which can contribute to higher scoring games. While the home team has had a negative point differential in recent games (-4 overall, -4.6 at home), the away team has had a positive differential (+1 overall, +3.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 51.5 Total Points (-115)

The over bet of 51.5 points in the totals market for the game is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, the home team has been involved in fairly high-scoring games recently, averaging 28 points for and 32 points against over their last five games. Similarly, the away team has scored an average of 21.8 points and conceded 20.8 points in their previous five games. When combining these averages, the total points per game exceeds the 51.5 point threshold for both teams, suggesting a probability of a high-scoring game. Additionally, both teams have shown a propensity for explosive plays, with the home and away teams having explosive rates of 0.230 and 0.202 respectively. Finally, the model edge of 0.0697 suggests that there is a statistical advantage to betting on the over outcome. Thus, based on recent performance and statistical analysis, the over 51.5 bet is reasonable.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills : Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)

The bet on Over 49.5 in the 'totals' market for this NFL game appears to be a solid choice based on the provided data. Both teams have demonstrated strong scoring capabilities in their last five games, with the home team averaging 27.6 points and the away team averaging 28.2 points. This combined average of 55.8 points is significantly higher than the set total of 49.5 points. Furthermore, the home team has a positive overall point difference in their last five games (8.6), and the away team also has a positive overall point difference (3). This indicates that both teams have been outscoring their opponents recently. Additionally, the home team has been winning their recent games (5-0 for overall and home games), and the away team has a decent record (3-2 overall). Both team's explosive rate for, which measures big-play ability, is above 0.22, indicating they have potential to rack up points

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills : Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)

The rationale for betting on 'Over 49.5' in the totals market for this game is primarily driven by the offensive performance of both teams. Looking at the last five games, the home team has averaged 27.6 points while the away team has averaged 28.2 points. This combined average of 55.8 is significantly higher than the 49.5 point over/under line. Both teams also have a positive points differential in their last five games, suggesting they are outscoring their opponents consistently. Another notable factor is the effective pass average (EPA) for both teams. The home team has a pass EPA of 7.45 and the away team 5.08, indicating strong passing offenses. The home team's explosive rate, which measures the rate of plays gaining significant yardage, is also above average at 0.223. However, the bettor should also be aware of the high turnover rates of both teams and the away team's