Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Monday 12/15

The bet on the New England Patriots in the 'head-to-head' market is based on their superior performance metrics over their last five games. The Patriots have scored more points on average than their opponents (27.6 vs 19) and have a healthy point difference of 8.6. Their Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each play to the score of the game, is also positive both in overall and passing plays. This indicates effective offensive plays by the team. The Patriots have also effectively limited their opponents to fewer total yards (290.4 vs. 377.8) and have a positive turnover difference (-0.2), which indicates a good defensive strategy. Their 5-0 record in recent games further supports their strong performance. On the other hand, the away team has an overall point difference of just 3, with a negative turnover difference of -0.4, suggesting they struggle more in both offensive and defensive plays. Given these statistics

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 51.5 Total Points (-110)

Betting on Over 51.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is primarily driven by the high-scoring trend observed in the recent performances of both teams. The home team has averaged 31.4 points at home in their last five games, while the away team has averaged 27.6 points away. Together, this is an average of 59 points per game, well over the set total of 51.5. Although the home team has a negative point differential, their EPA for is positive, indicating they are generating good scoring opportunities. The away team also has a positive point differential, which further strengthens the case for a high-scoring game. Additionally, both teams have a high explosive rate for, indicating a propensity for big plays that can lead to touchdowns. Although the model edge is relatively low at 0.08, the scoring trends and potential for explosive plays suggest that betting Over 51.5 is a reasonable decision.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 51.5 Total Points (-110)

The bet on Over 51.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is backed by several compelling statistics. Firstly, looking at the home team's last 5 games, they have scored an average of 28 points while conceding an average of 32 points. This results in an average total of 60 points, well over the 51.5 point mark. This trend is even more pronounced in their home games, where they have scored an average of 31.4 points and conceded an average of 36 points, resulting in an average total of 67.4 points. The away team's data also supports the Over bet. In their last 5 games, they have scored an average of 21.8 points and conceded an average of 20.8 points, resulting in an average total of 42.6 points. This increases to an average total of 51.4 points in their away games. These figures, combined with a model edge of

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills : Over 49.5 Total Points (-108)

The Over 49.5 bet in the totals market for this NFL game is supported by the past scoring data of both teams. The home team has averaged 27.6 points in their overall last five games, while the away team has averaged 28.2 points in the same period. This gives a combined average of 55.8 points, well over the 49.5 point line. Additionally, the home team's offensive performance has been efficient, with a high expected points added (EPA) for both passing and rushing plays. The away team's EPA data also indicates a robust offensive performance. Furthermore, both teams have shown a higher rate of explosive plays, which can contribute to higher scoring games. Although there is a risk with the away team's higher turnovers, the model gives an edge of 0.0718652849740932 to this bet, indicating a statistical advantage. The recent records of both teams also support this bet, with the home team being

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills : Over 49.5 Total Points (-112)

The bet on Over 49.5 points for the NA vs NA game in the 'totals' market is favored by several key statistical factors. Firstly, both teams have been scoring well above the 49.5 point threshold in recent games, with the home team averaging 27.6 points and the away team 28.2 points over their last five games respectively. The home team has also been notably dominant in their previous games, with a 5-0 record in their last five home games and overall, which bodes well for their offensive performance. Secondly, the home team has a higher Expected Points Added (EPA) for both passing and rushing, which indicates they are likely to score more points. Additionally, both teams' defenses have conceded more than the 49.5 point threshold on average, with the home team conceding 19 points and the away team 25.2 points on average over the last five games. This indicates a high-scoring game.