Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots : Under 50.5 Total Points (-102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for this NFL game suggests a strong possibility of the combined score staying under 50.5 points. The home team has been struggling recently, with a negative point differential in their last five games and a troubling 1-4 record. They've been averaging 28.6 points scored per game but allowing 35.6 points, indicating a weak defense. The away team, on the other hand, has a robust 5-0 record but their average score for is 28.4, and they've been exceptional defensively, allowing only 17.2 points per game. Adding these averages together, we get a combined score of 57 points, which is over the limit. However, considering the away team's solid defensive performance, it's likely they'll be able to limit the home team's scoring. Furthermore, the home team's weak defense may not be as much of a liability considering the away team's average score isn't exceptionally high. Therefore, the under
Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots : Under 50.5 Total Points (-106)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The wager on the Under 50.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is backed by various factors. Firstly, the home team has a poor scoring record in their last 5 games, averaging 28.6 points scored while conceding an average of 35.6 points. Their negative point differential (-7) and EPA differential (-8.49) highlight their struggles on both sides of the ball. Similarly, the away team's robust defense, which has allowed only 17.2 points on average in the last 5 games, is a critical element to consider. Their positive point differential (11.2) and EPA differential (12.44) underscore their strong defensive performance. Furthermore, the away team's average score in their previous 5 away games (28) is lower than the home team's average score in their last 5 home games (33.6). Given these statistics, a low-scoring game (Under 50.5 points) is likely
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : Under 44.5 Total Points (-102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game seems to be a reasonable choice based on the statistics provided. Both teams have been scoring less than 44.5 points on average over their last five games, with the home team averaging 22.2 points and the away team averaging 19.4 points. Moreover, the away team's last five games have resulted in a negative point difference of -2.8, suggesting that they have been outscored by their opponents. Additionally, both teams have been struggling offensively, as indicated by their negative EPA (Expected Points Added) values. The home team's overall EPA for the last five games is -0.461, while the away team's is significantly lower at -1.951. This implies that both teams have been less efficient at producing points than expected, a trend that, if it continues, supports a bet for under 44.5 total points in this game. Lastly, both teams
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA Moneyline (+136)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the head-to-head (h2h) market is supported by several key performance indicators from the last five games. Firstly, the Steelers have a solid home record of 4-1, outscoring their opponents by an average of 1.8 points per game. Secondly, they have a superior expected points added (EPA) difference both overall (3.53) and at home (4.69), indicating they're generally making more impactful plays. On the other hand, the away team has a negative point difference (-4.4) in their last five away games and a poor away record of 2-3. Their EPA difference is also significantly lower both overall (0.16) and on the road (-3.41), suggesting lesser efficiency in their plays. Moreover, the Steelers have a positive turnover difference both overall (1.6) and at home (1.6), while the away team's turnover difference is notably
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA Moneyline (+128)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
A bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the head-to-head market is justified by a number of key statistical advantages. Firstly, the Steelers have a superior overall record in their last five games (4-1) compared to their opponents' (2-3). They also gain more total yards per game (409) compared to the opponent's 296, and have a better turnover differential (+1.6 vs +0.2). Moreover, the Steelers have a superior expected points added (EPA) differential, a key measure of team efficiency, in both overall and home games. In the overall last five games, their EPA differential is 3.5 compared to the opposition's 0.16. The Steelers also outperform in terms of explosive rate, a measure of a team's ability to create big plays, with a higher rate for (0.23) than the opponent's (0.20). These data-driven factors indicate that the Steelers are statistically more likely to win this match
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : Under 45.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
A bet on 'Under 45.5' seems reasonable considering both teams' recent scoring history. The home team has averaged 22.2 points in their last five games, while the away team has averaged 19.4 points, giving a combined average of 41.6, which is less than the target of 45.5 points. Additionally, both teams have strong defenses with the home team having an average of 14.8 points scored against them, and the away team having an average of 22.2 points scored against them. The home team has a positive point differential in their last five games, and the away team has a negative point differential, which suggests a low scoring game. The model edge of 0.142985694328486 supports the under bet. Furthermore, both teams have negative EPA differentials which indicates inefficiency in gaining yards, also pointing to a lower scoring game. The 'Under 45.5' bet seems statistically sound.
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