Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Friday 01/02

The bet on Over 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is influenced by several key factors. The home team has a last five (L5) score of 23 against 27, averaging a total of 50 points per game, well over the 44.5 outcome point. Moreover, they have an explosive rate for of 0.226, indicating a capacity for high scoring plays. Additionally, the away team's L5 score for is 24.8 against 18, averaging a total of 42.8 points per game. With their L5 pass EPA (Expected Points Added) for at 3.91, they show a strong passing game that could also contribute to a high score. This statistical analysis, combined with the fact that both teams have a positive overall record in their last five games (3-2 and 4-1 respectively), suggests a likelihood of the total score exceeding 44.5 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers : NA +3 Point Spread (-120)

The bet on Carolina Panthers with a spread of 3 makes sense when we consider both teams' recent performance and head-to-head records. The Panthers, despite being the home team, have an overall negative point differential in their last five games (-1.6), while the away team has a larger negative differential (-5). This indicates that the Panthers have been outperforming their opponents compared to the away team. Moreover, the Panthers have a superior head-to-head record against the away team in their last five encounters, winning four out of five. This means that historically, the Panthers have had the upper hand against this opponent, which gives them a psychological advantage coming into this game. Although the Panthers have been struggling with turnovers, with a -0.4 differential over the last five games, they still fare better than the away team, which has a differential of 0.8. Overall, these statistics demonstrate a clear edge for the Panthers, making them a sensible choice for this bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (+124)

The bet on the Carolina Panthers in the head-to-head (h2h) market is supported by several factors. Firstly, the Panthers have a model edge of 0.154571428571429, indicating a higher probability of winning. Historically, they have a superior head-to-head record against the opposition, winning 4 out of the last 5 encounters. Looking at the last five games performance, the Panthers have scored more points on average (21) than their opponents (18). While their points against average is slightly higher, their overall point differential (-1.6) is better than the away team (-5). Their total yards for (319.2) is significantly higher than the away team (256.6), suggesting a better offensive performance. They also have a lower turnover rate (1.2 vs 1), implying their offense is more reliable. Lastly, the Panthers' explosive rate, which measures the frequency of plays gaining 20 or more yards, is higher both overall

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (+124)

The betting rationale favors the Carolina Panthers due to several key statistical advantages. Their model edge of 0.15457 indicates a significant expected advantage over their opponents. In terms of scoring, the Panthers have a slightly better overall L5 score for (21) than their opponents (18). They also have a better home L5 score for (24.2) than the opponent's away score for (17). In terms of efficiency, the Panthers have a positive L5 EPA in home games (4.1223) while the opponent has a negative overall L5 EPA (-1.4309). The Panthers also have a better track record against the opponents with a 4-1 win-loss record in the last five encounters compared to the opponent's 1-4 record. These statistics suggest that the Panthers have a higher probability of winning the head-to-head match.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 44.5 Total Points (-105)

The Over 44.5 in this NFL game's 'totals' market is a statistically sound bet largely due to the scoring trends of both teams. Both teams have been scoring considerably in their last five games, with the home team averaging 23 points and the away team scoring an average of 24.8 points. This combined for an average of 47.8 points per game, which surpasses the 44.5 point benchmark set in this bet. Additionally, the home team has been conceding an average of 27 points in their last five games, indicating a lack of defensive solidity that the away team, which is offensively potent, can exploit. When considering the Expected Points Added (EPA) data, which represents the contribution each play makes to the score, the home team's defensive EPA is negative, supporting the possibility of a high-scoring game. Lastly, the model edge of 0.149 indicates a statistical edge for this bet, further solidifying the rationale