On Saturday 8 August 2026, Steven Asplund takes on Guilherme Pat in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Steven Asplund to Win, priced at -270 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Steven Asplund to Win (-270)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

I'm picking Steven Asplund to win against Guilherme Pat because our numbers give him a good chance to take the fight. Asplund seems to be a strong striker, and if he can keep the fight standing, he has the skills to land more effective punches. Pat might try to take it to the ground, so if Asplund can defend those takedowns, he could control the fight. Remember, anything can happen in the cage, but I like Asplund here. Just keep in mind that there's never a guarantee in fights! It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Steven Asplund -5.5 on the Line (-120)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

I'm picking Steven Asplund to cover the spread of -5.5 against Guilherme Pat. Asplund is a strong striker who can really put pressure on his opponent. If he keeps his pace up and lands more shots, he should be able to win by a decent margin. While Guilherme Pat is tough and could surprise us, I like Asplund's chances to stay ahead. This bet might not be a sure thing, but it feels like a solid choice based on how they match up. Just remember, anything can happen in a fight! It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Steven Asplund: last five L-W-W, dropped the last 1, 22% of career wins came by knockout, 146 days since the last fight
  • Guilherme Pat: last five L-W, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 125 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Steven Asplund v Guilherme Pat. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks