Louie Sutherland vs José Montanha Prediction & Picks: Analytics Breakdown

On Saturday 8 August 2026, Louie Sutherland takes on José Montanha in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Louie Sutherland -3.5 on the Line, priced at -125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Louie Sutherland -3.5 on the Line (-125)

Louie Sutherland is taking on Jose Montanha in a close matchup. Sutherland is known for his striking skills, while Montanha tends to grapple and control his opponents. For Sutherland to win by more than 3.5 points, he needs to keep the fight standing and land more significant hits. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance of doing this, but remember, anything can happen in the cage. Betting on Sutherland to win by at least 4 points feels like a solid play, but it's not a guaranteed win, so keep that in mind! It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Amanda Lemos: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 14% of career wins came by knockout, 146 days since the last fight
• Alexia Thainara: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 132 days since the last fight
• Bruno Lopes: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 132 days since the last fight
• Diyar Nurgozhay: last five W-L-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight
• Juliana Miller: last five L-W-L-L-W, dropped the last 1, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 167 days since the last fight
• Ravena Oliveira: last five L-L-L, dropped the last 3, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 139 days since the last fight
• Mateusz Gamrot: last five W-L-W-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 118 days since the last fight
• Quillan Salkilld: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 6-fight win streak, 23% of career wins came by knockout, 97 days since the last fight
• Miles Johns: last five L-L-L-W-W, dropped the last 3, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 272 days since the last fight
• Steven Asplund: last five L-W-W, dropped the last 1, 22% of career wins came by knockout, 146 days since the last fight
• Guilherme Pat: last five L-W, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 125 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Louie Sutherland v José Montanha. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.