Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat Prediction & Picks: Full Match Breakdown & Bets

On Saturday 8 August 2026, Steven Asplund takes on Guilherme Pat in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Steven Asplund -5.5 on the Line, priced at -115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Steven Asplund -5.5 on the Line (-115)

I'm picking Steven Asplund to cover the spread of -5.5 against Guilherme Pat. Asplund is a strong striker who can really put pressure on his opponent. If he keeps his pace up and lands more shots, he should be able to win by a decent margin. While Guilherme Pat is tough and could surprise us, I like Asplund's chances to stay ahead. This bet might not be a sure thing, but it feels like a solid choice based on how they match up. Just remember, anything can happen in a fight! It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Amanda Lemos: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 14% of career wins came by knockout, 145 days since the last fight
• Alexia Thainara: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 131 days since the last fight
• Bruno Lopes: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 131 days since the last fight
• Diyar Nurgozhay: last five W-L-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 152 days since the last fight
• Juliana Miller: last five L-W-L-L-W, dropped the last 1, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 166 days since the last fight
• Ravena Oliveira: last five L-L-L, dropped the last 3, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 138 days since the last fight
• Manoel Sousa: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 13% of career wins came by knockout, 145 days since the last fight
• Mateusz Gamrot: last five W-L-W-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 117 days since the last fight
• Quillan Salkilld: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 6-fight win streak, 23% of career wins came by knockout, 96 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Steven Asplund v Guilherme Pat. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.