On Saturday 8 August 2026, Manoel Sousa takes on Richie Miranda in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 1.5 Total Rounds, priced at +189 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+189)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

In the UFC fight between Steven Asplund and Guilherme Pat, I'm picking the total rounds to go under 1.5. Both fighters have aggressive styles, with a focus on finishing their opponents quickly. Asplund is known for his striking, while Pat has a strong grappling game, which could lead to a quick end. Our numbers show there's a good chance this fight won't last long, and it's possible we could see a finish in the first round. Remember, fights can be unpredictable, but I think this one could be over sooner rather than later. It was priced at +189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.90 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Manoel Sousa -3.5 on the Line (-145)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

In the fight between Manoel Sousa and Richie Miranda, I like the bet on Sousa to win by at least four points. Sousa is known for his striking skills, while Miranda often relies on his wrestling. If Sousa can keep the fight standing and use his punches effectively, he should be able to control the action and score points. Our numbers give Sousa a good chance to win by enough to cover the spread. Just remember, anything can happen in the octagon, so while I feel good about this pick, there's no guarantee. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Richie Miranda to Win (+246)

Odds available at BetUS at time of publishing

Richie Miranda is the pick to win against Manoel Sousa because he has a strong chance as an underdog. Miranda is known for his striking, which could give him the upper hand if he can keep the fight standing. Sousa might try to take it to the ground, so Miranda needs to stay on his feet and use his skills effectively. It's a tough matchup, but Miranda has what it takes to pull off the win. Just remember, in fights like this, anything can happen, so it's not a sure thing. It was priced at +246 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $34.60 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Manoel Sousa: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 13% of career wins came by knockout, 145 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Manoel Sousa v Richie Miranda. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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