On Saturday 1 August 2026, Stephanie Luciano takes on Marina Spasic in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 2.5 Total Rounds, priced at +230 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 2.5 Total Rounds (+230)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

In the fight between Jan Blachowicz and Navajo Stirling, I like the bet on under 2.5 rounds. Both guys have exciting styles, and they can finish fights quickly. Blachowicz is a powerful striker, while Stirling is known for his grappling skills. With their aggressive approaches, I think it's likely one of them will find a way to end it early. Our numbers show a strong chance for this to happen, but remember, anything can occur in the octagon. So, while this looks promising, it's still a gamble. It was priced at +230 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $33 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Stephanie Luciano -3.5 on the Line (-130)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Stephanie Luciano is taking on Marina Spasic in a fight where we think Stephanie has a solid chance to win by a few points. Stephanie is known for her striking skills, and if she can keep the fight standing, she should be able to score more effectively. Marina might try to wrestle, but if Stephanie can avoid that and focus on her punches, she could win by at least four points. Remember, anything can happen in a fight, so this is not a sure thing, but we like Stephanie to cover that spread. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Alexander Poppeck: last five L, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 2564 days since the last fight
  • Jovan Leka: last five W, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 289 days since the last fight
  • Daniel Rodriguez: last five W-W-W-L-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 377 days since the last fight
  • Dennis Buzukja: last five L-L-W-L-L, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 104 days since the last fight
  • Bogdan Grad: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 5% of career wins came by knockout, 251 days since the last fight
  • Robert Valentin: last five W-L-L-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 104 days since the last fight
  • Hailey Cowan: last five L-L-L-W, dropped the last 3, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 118 days since the last fight
  • Jan Blachowicz: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 496 days since the last fight
  • Navajo Stirling: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 6-fight win streak, 30% of career wins came by knockout, 41 days since the last fight
  • Kyle Prepolec: last five L-L-L-L, dropped the last 4, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 286 days since the last fight
  • Ludovit Klein: last five W-L-W-W-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 279 days since the last fight
  • Tofiq Musayev: last five W-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 125 days since the last fight
  • Marcin Tybura: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 125 days since the last fight
  • Aleksandar Rakic: last five L-L-L-L-W, dropped the last 4, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 279 days since the last fight
  • Oban Elliott: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 181 days since the last fight
  • Michael Oliveira: last five W, on a 1-fight win streak, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 289 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Stephanie Luciano v Marina Spasic. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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