Sonny Gray (STL) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1000)

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The bet for Sonny Gray to allow over 2.5 hits in the Pitcher Hits Allowed (Alternate) market is statistically justified. Gray's recent performance data indicates a consistent trend of allowing more than 2.5 hits per game. Over his last five games, he has averaged 4.2 hits allowed overall and 4.6 hits allowed at home. Furthermore, when facing the Reds, his average hits allowed rises to 4.7. His innings pitched and outs averages also support the likelihood of him allowing more than 2.5 hits. The current hit streaks, both overall and at home, further bolster this prediction. Therefore, given Gray's recent trend of allowing hits and his specific performance against the Reds, the bet for him to allow over 2.5 hits is a strong choice.

Sonny Gray (STL) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Sonny Gray for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a solid option due to his recent performance data. In his last five games overall, Gray has averaged 0.8 walks per game, and this number increases to 1.0 when playing at home. Moreover, when facing the Reds, his walks allowed average further escalates to 1.7. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he will have ample opportunities to concede a walk. Furthermore, Gray is currently on a hit streak, both overall and at home, indicating a higher likelihood of allowing a walk. All these statistics point towards a higher probability of Gray giving up at least one walk in the upcoming game against the Reds, making the Over 0.5 bet a solid choice.

Matt McLain (CIN) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-833)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Matt McLain's stolen bases is a smart choice given his recent performance data. McLain's overall and away five-game average for stolen bases is only 0.2, well below the bet's line of 0.5. This suggests that he's not stealing bases frequently. Furthermore, his current hit streaks, both overall and away, are only at 1, indicating a lack of consistent hitting performance necessary to even be in position for a steal. Additionally, his five-game average against the Cardinals shows no stolen bases, further supporting the under bet. His lack of caught stealing (0 average) also implies he's not attempting many steals. Therefore, the statistics suggest that McLain is unlikely to steal a base in this game, making the under 0.5 bet a data-driven choice.

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