Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-2500)

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Mitch Keller's performance data suggests a strong likelihood of him allowing over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game. His last five games have seen an average of 5.6 hits allowed overall and 5.8 at home, both well above the line. His innings pitched and outs averages also indicate that he is typically on the mound long enough to give up more than 2.5 hits. Although his average against this specific opponent is lower at 3 hits, it still surpasses the line. Additionally, Keller is on a 14-game overall hit streak and a 6-game home hit streak, suggesting consistent susceptibility to hits. Hence, the bet for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is a compelling choice.

Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-400)

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The bet on Mitch Keller to allow over 0.5 walks is a promising choice based on his recent performance data. On average, Keller has allowed 2 walks per game overall recently, and even at home, this average increases slightly to 2.2. This is well above the line set at 0.5, indicating a high probability that he will allow at least one walk in the upcoming game. While Keller has not allowed any walks against the Rangers in his last five matchups, his overall and home averages suggest a different pattern. Additionally, Keller's current hit streak at home is only 2 games, compared to an overall streak of 8 games, suggesting his performance at home is not as strong. Therefore, statistical data supports the bet for Keller to allow over 0.5 walks.

Marcus Semien (TEX) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-714)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Marcus Semien in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice given his recent performance data. Semien's statistics show a lack of stolen bases in the last five games, both overall and away, with averages of 0 in both cases. Additionally, his average caught stealing (Cs) in the last five away games is 0.2, indicating a risk when he attempts to steal. Despite his impressive hit streaks, these do not translate into stolen bases. His performance against the Pirates also supports this bet, as his average stolen bases in the last five games against this team is only 0.2. Therefore, based on Semien's recent performance and tendency not to steal bases, the under 0.5 bet is statistically sound.

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