Saquon Barkley (PHI) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Saquon Barkley for under 17.5 receiving yards in the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears matchup is statistically supported. Barkley's recent performance and hit rates suggest a downward trend in his reception yard production. In his last five games, Barkley has failed to exceed the 17.5-yard mark, evident in his overall hit rate of 0/5. This trend continues when looking at his last 10 games, where he only surpassed the 17.5-yard threshold once, as indicated by his home hit rate of 1/10. Although Barkley performed well against the Bears in the past (1/1 hit rate), this success was isolated and doesn't override his recent underperformance. Furthermore, his current hit streaks in overall and home games are both at zero, suggesting that his form is currently under par. Therefore, the under 17.5 bet is statistically justified.

Jahan Dotson (PHI) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+180)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jahan Dotson to achieve over 14.5 reception yards in the game between Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears may appear a risky proposition considering his overall recent performance. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games stands at just 3/20, with a current hit streak of 0, suggesting a lack of consistent form. His home hit rate isn't much better, with 6 successes in 20 attempts. However, there are specific factors that could influence his performance positively in this game. Dotson has a perfect track record against the Chicago Bears, with a 1/1 hit rate overall, at home, and in the last three games. His current hit streak against the Bears is also 1, indicating that his performance tends to improve when facing this specific team. This game-specific data suggests that despite his recent overall lackluster performance, Dotson may exceed expectations in this match-up against the Bears.

Jahan Dotson (PHI) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Jahan Dotson for Over 9.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market for the Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears game requires careful consideration of his recent performance and hit rates. Dotson's overall hit rate is just over 55% (30/54), with a slightly better performance at home (15/29). However, his recent performance has been poor, with no hits in his last 5 games overall and at home. Furthermore, he hasn't achieved the 9.5 reception yards mark in his last 10 games overall. His performance against Chicago has been strong, albeit based on a single game, where he exceeded the 9.5 yard mark both overall and at home. However, given his current hit streak of 0 in both overall and home games, betting on Dotson reaching over 9.5 reception yards would be a risky wager, despite his past success against Chicago.

Jahan Dotson (PHI) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+172)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Jahan Dotson for Over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is not a strong choice based on recent performances and trends. Dotson has a poor overall hit rate of 24/54 and has failed to hit the over in his last 10 attempts. His home hit rate is also not impressive at 13/29 and he has missed his last 5 attempts at home. Even though he has a 100% hit rate against Chicago, this is based on a single data point, which is not statistically significant. His current form doesn't inspire confidence either, with a current hit streak of 0. The model's edge of 0.063 is also quite low, indicating the potential return on investment may not be worth the risk. Therefore, it doesn't seem advisable to bet on Dotson to exceed 14.5 reception yards in this matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears : NA +7 Point Spread (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Chicago Bears are favored in this spread bet due to their superior defensive performance and positive record over the last five games. The Bears have a home overall score of 22.6 against 16.4, a point difference of 6.2 which exceeds the spread of 7 points. Their EPA (Estimated Points Added) difference is also favorable at 7.24, indicating they have an efficient offense. In terms of turnovers, the Bears have a positive difference, which suggests better ball control. Comparatively, the away team has a score difference of 0 and less efficient EPA difference of 0.67. They also have a higher explosive rate against, suggesting they allow more big plays. And while their away record is strong (4-1), they've lost to the Bears in their last meeting. Therefore, the statistics support the bet on the Chicago Bears to cover the 7-point spread.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears : NA +7 Point Spread (-110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Chicago Bears, despite being the home team, are the underdogs by 7 points, but there are several key statistics that suggest they could cover the spread. Firstly, the Bears have a strong recent home record, winning 4 out of their last 5 games. Their home overall L5 point differential is positive at 6.2 points, suggesting they typically outscore their opponents. Although the opposition also has a strong overall record (4-1), their point differential is 0, indicating tighter games. Moreover, the Bears' defense has been strong, especially in pass defense where their home overall L5 pass EPA against is -3.4, indicating they have effectively limited opponents' passing efficiency. Lastly, the Bears have a positive turnover differential both overall (1.2) and at home (0.4), suggesting they have been effective at taking the ball away from the opposition while maintaining possession themselves. Given these factors, betting on the Bears to cover

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