On Sunday 16 August 2026, Mackenzie Dern takes on Gillian Robertson in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 4.5 Total Rounds, priced at +130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 4.5 Total Rounds (+130)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

This fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson could be a quick one. Both fighters are known for their finishing skills, which means they often look for ways to end the fight early. Dern has strong striking and grappling, while Robertson is also a tough opponent who can submit her rivals. With both fighters eager to find a finish, it's likely we won't see all five rounds. Our numbers suggest the total combined rounds will be around two, so betting on under 4.5 rounds seems smart. Just remember, anything can happen in a fight! It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mackenzie Dern -5.5 on the Line (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Mackenzie Dern is a strong striker with great grappling skills, while Gillian Robertson is a solid wrestler. This fight is expected to be very close, like flipping a coin. Dern needs to keep the fight standing and use her striking to score points, while Robertson will likely try to take it to the ground. Just remember, this is still a tough matchup, and anything can happen in the octagon! It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Gillian Robertson to Win (+184)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Gillian Robertson is facing Mackenzie Dern in this fight, and I like Robertson to win. She has a solid grappling style and is great at taking the fight to the ground, which can give her an advantage. Dern is a strong striker, but if Robertson can get a hold of her and control the match, she has a good chance to pull off the upset. It won't be easy, but at those odds, it's worth a shot. Just remember, anything can happen in the octagon, so it's always a risk. It was priced at +184 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.40 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Mackenzie Dern: last five W-W-W-L-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 293 days since the last fight
  • Gillian Robertson: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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