On Saturday 8 August 2026, Connecticut Sun play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 188 Total Points, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 188 Total Points (-500)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

As the Connecticut Sun gear up to host the Phoenix Mercury at Mohegan Sun Arena, expect a defensive showdown that could keep the scoreboard quieter than anticipated. Both teams have a penchant for grinding out possessions and are particularly stingy on defense. The Sun, known for their disciplined approach, will likely stifle Phoenix's offensive rhythm, while the Mercury, despite their star power, have struggled to find consistency on the road. Historically, these matchups trend toward lower-scoring affairs, and with our model projecting around 158 total points, it seems the under is the way to go. Given the pace at which both teams play-often favoring meticulous ball movement over quick shots-betting on the under 188 feels like a smart move. The atmosphere in the arena should be electric, but the points might just be in short supply. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Connecticut Sun +17.5 on the Line (-714)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

As the Connecticut Sun prepare to host the Phoenix Mercury at Mohegan Sun Arena, the stage is set for a high-stakes showdown. The Sun, with their impressive home court advantage, thrive on a fast-paced game, and their defense has been relentless this season. While the Mercury have struggled to find their rhythm, the Sun's ability to capitalize on turnovers can turn the tide in their favor quickly. Given the model's projection, which suggests a potential blowout, laying the alternate spread of 17.5 feels prudent. Connecticut's depth and offensive firepower are likely to overwhelm Phoenix, especially as they push the tempo. The Mercury, facing a fierce Sun defense, may find themselves scrambling, leading to an increased point differential. Expect Connecticut to assert their dominance and cover this spread, making them a compelling wager as they look to continue their winning ways at home. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

DeWanna Bonner Over 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-109)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Connecticut Sun play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Saturday 8 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is DeWanna Bonner Over 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists. That is a player points, rebounds and assists combined bet. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. It is on at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-208)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Connecticut Sun play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Saturday 8 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made. That is a player three-pointers made bet. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.80 if it lands. It is on at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kelsey Plum Under 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Connecticut Sun play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Saturday 8 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kelsey Plum Under 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists. That is a player points, rebounds and assists combined bet. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. It is on at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Connecticut Sun v Phoenix Mercury. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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