Calgary Flames vs New York Islanders : Calgary Flames +1.5 (-286)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Calgary Flames at 1.5 in the 'Puck Line' market is supported by the team's performance in previous games. Over the last five matches, the Flames have maintained an average of 1 goal per game at home, while the Islanders have also averaged 1 goal in their away games. Considering the Flames' home advantage, their recent form against the Islanders with a 3-2 win record, and their marginally better performance in generating assists (1.8 average) compared to the Islanders (1 average), it is reasonable to predict the Flames will cover the puck line. Additionally, the model's prediction, implying a 74.1% chance for the Flames to win, and it's relatively low standard deviation of 1.64, further strengthens the rationale for this bet. This combination of factors indicates a potentially profitable opportunity betting on the Flames to win by more than 1.5 goals.

Rasmus Andersson (Calgary Flames) Over 1.5 Shots On Goal (-192)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Over 1.5 bet on Rasmus Andersson for 'Player Shots On Goal' is chosen based on his recent performance and the model's prediction. In his last five home games, Andersson has averaged 2.6 shots per game, which is above the required 1.5 line set for this bet. Additionally, his overall average over the last five games is 3.2 shots, further supporting that he frequently exceeds the 1.5 line. This is also backed by his hit rates where he's hit over 1.5 shots in 11 out of his last 16 home games and 4 out of his last 5 games overall. The model prediction of 2.72, which is well above the line, suggests that Andersson is likely to continue this trend. Considering these stats, it seems reasonable to expect Andersson to have over 1.5 shots on goal in the upcoming game.

David Rittich (New York Islanders) Under 25.5 Saves (-105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale on David Rittich for Under 25.5 in the 'Player Total Saves' market is supported by a combination of his recent performance data and the model's prediction. Rittich's average saves for the last five away games stand at 26, which is marginally above the line, however, his overall average for the last five games is lower at 23.8. In addition, the model predicts a total of 24.55 saves, which falls below the line of 25.5. It's noteworthy that his hit rate in the last 20 away games is just over half (11/20) and he currently has no active hit streak in away games. These statistics, combined with the model's prediction, suggest that Rittich is more likely to make fewer than 25.5 saves in the upcoming game against the Calgary Flames.

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