On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos play Newcastle Knights in the NRL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Newcastle Knights +23.5 on the Line, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Newcastle Knights +23.5 on the Line (-769)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Brisbane Broncos are playing at home against the Newcastle Knights, and our numbers really like the Knights in this matchup. They have been putting in some solid performances lately, so betting on Newcastle to stay within 23.5 points feels like a good move. The Broncos are expected to win by about 16 points, so this bet gives the Knights a bit of room to work with. Just remember, anything can happen in rugby league, and while this looks promising, there's no guarantee it will win. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Newcastle Knights to Win the First Half (+160)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

I'm picking the Newcastle Knights to win the first half against the Brisbane Broncos. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, and it feels like a close call. The Knights have shown they can start strong, so there's a good chance they could grab a lead early on. Sure, betting on an away team can be a bit risky, but at these odds, it's worth a shot. Just remember, nothing is guaranteed, and anything can happen in rugby league. It was priced at +160 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Newcastle Knights to Win (+170)

Odds available at BetRight at time of publishing

The Newcastle Knights are up against the Brisbane Broncos, and while the Broncos have a strong home advantage, the Knights have been showing some good form lately. They might be the underdogs in this matchup, but they have a real chance to pull off an upset. With the odds at +170, betting on the Knights could be worth a shot if you're feeling hopeful. Just remember, anything can happen in rugby league, so it's not a sure thing, but it could be an exciting pick! It was priced at +170 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mat Croker to Score a Try (+1400)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

Mat Croker is known for his attacking skills, and he'll be key for the Newcastle Knights against the Brisbane Broncos. While it's a tough matchup, Croker has the talent to find space and score a try. The Broncos have a solid defense, but they can be caught off guard, especially with a player like Croker who can make the most of any opportunity. Betting on him to score a try is definitely a long shot, but if he gets the ball in the right places, anything can happen. Just remember, it's all part of the game! It was priced at +1400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $150 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Fletcher Sharpe Over 2.5 Tries (+8000)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

Fletcher Sharpe has been showing some skill on the field, and with the Brisbane Broncos playing at home against the Newcastle Knights, he could find some chances to score. The Knights have had some trouble stopping teams from getting tries lately, so if Sharpe can get the ball in the right spots, he might just surprise us. Betting on him to score 3 or more tries is definitely a long shot, but if he's in the zone, anything can happen. Just remember, this one might not hit, but it's fun to think about! It was priced at +8000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $810 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ben Talty Over 1.5 Tries (+15000)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

Ben Talty has a big role in the Brisbane Broncos' attack, so there's always a chance he can score a couple of tries. The Newcastle Knights have had some struggles in defense lately, which could create openings for him. However, this bet is a genuine long shot, meaning it might not happen. Still, if he gets the ball in the right spots, he could surprise us. Just remember, sometimes these things don't go as planned, so keep that in mind when placing your bet! It was priced at +15000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1510 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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