On Friday 31 July 2026, St George Illawarra Dragons play Dolphins in the NRL. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 35.5 Total Points, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Over 35.5 Total Points (-769)
Odds available at TAB at time of publishing
St George Illawarra Dragons are facing off against the Dolphins, and I think there will be a lot of points scored in this game. Both teams have shown they can score well lately, and our numbers suggest they could combine for nearly 50 points. While nothing is ever certain, betting on over 35.5 points seems like a solid choice here, especially since both teams have been playing some exciting rugby. Just remember, anything can happen in sports, so keep your expectations in check! It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Dolphins to Win (-370)
Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing
The Dolphins are playing against the St George Illawarra Dragons, and our numbers think the Dolphins are a strong favorite to win. They've been showing good form lately, playing well in their recent games. The Dragons have struggled a bit, which makes this matchup look good for the Dolphins. While nothing is guaranteed, it seems like a solid bet to back the Dolphins to take the victory here. Just remember, upsets can happen in sports, so keep that in mind! It was priced at -370 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Dolphins to Win the First Half (-278)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
I'm picking the Dolphins to win the first half against the St George Illawarra Dragons. The Dolphins have shown they can start strong, which gives them a good chance to take the lead early in the game. While the Dragons are at home and can be tough to beat, I think the Dolphins will come out firing and grab the first half win. Remember, nothing is guaranteed in sports, but this bet looks promising based on how both teams have been playing recently. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Loko Pasifiki Tonga could be a fun pick for an anytime try scorer in the game between St George Illawarra Dragons and the Dolphins. He plays in a strong attacking role, and if the Dragons get close to the Dolphins' line, he might get a chance to score. While this is a long shot, the odds are pretty tempting, and sometimes those big surprises can happen in rugby league. Just remember, it's not a sure thing, but if you're feeling lucky, it could be worth a shot! It was priced at +1200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $130 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at Unibet at time of publishing
Clinton Gutherson has a strong attacking role for the St George Illawarra Dragons, and he's been known to score tries when the game gets exciting. The Dolphins are a tough team, but if the Dragons can find their rhythm, Gutherson might get a few chances to cross the line. Scoring 3 or more tries is a big ask, so this is a genuine long shot. Just keep in mind that in rugby league, anything can happen, so while it's a fun bet, there are no guarantees. It was priced at +12500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1260 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads St George Illawarra Dragons v Dolphins. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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