Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 43.5 Total Points (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The rationale for betting Over 43.5 on the 'totals' market is primarily driven by the teams' recent scoring data. The home team has scored an average of 23 points in their last five games while the away team has scored an average of 24.8 points, totalling 47.8 combined. This is comfortably over the 43.5 point line. Moreover, the home team has allowed an average of 27 points whereas the away team has allowed 18 points, suggesting a combined average of 45 points against, which again, is over the line. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), the home team is allowing a higher EPA against than it's generating, indicating they tend to concede more points than they score. The away team, however, has a positive EPA difference, meaning they typically outscore their opponents. Finally, both teams have a positive turnover difference, suggesting they tend to create more scoring opportunities than they give up, which could lead to

Drake London (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Statistically, placing a bet on Drake London to score a touchdown at any time during the Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints game appears to be a high-risk bet. London's recent performance data does not favor this outcome. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0, suggesting he hasn't scored a touchdown in these games. This trend continues for home games and games against New Orleans. His hit rate against New Orleans is also 0, both in general and at home games. His overall current hit streak is 0, as is his home current hit streak and his hit streak against New Orleans, indicating he's not currently on a scoring run. While the model edge is positive, considering London's recent performance and trend data, betting on him to score a touchdown seems to be a risky proposition.

Drake London (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data for Drake London suggests a low probability of him scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. Recently, London has been struggling to find the end zone, as evidenced by a hit rate of 0/5 overall and at home in his last five games. His performance against the Saints is equally unimpressive, with a 0/6 hit rate over his career. Furthermore, in both home and away games against the Saints, he has never managed to score a touchdown. Cumulatively, London has a hit rate of 14/61 overall, 7/30 at home, and 0/6 against the Saints, which further reinforces a trend of underperformance. Given the model edge of only about 0.085, it's statistically sound to bet against London scoring a touchdown in this game.

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