Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins : NA Moneyline (+340)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on the Miami Dolphins in the head-to-head (h2h) market is based on their superior performance metrics compared to the away team. The Dolphins have a home record of 3-2 compared to the away team's overall record of 1-4. The Dolphins also have better overall scores, with an average of 18 points per game compared to the away team's 21. The Dolphins' defensive performance is also stronger, conceding an average of 19.4 points per game compared to the away team's 27.8. In terms of expected points added (EPA), the Dolphins' overall EPA for and against are both better than the away team's. Additionally, the Dolphins' explosive rate for is higher than the away team's. Finally, the Dolphins have a model edge of 0.180727272727273, indicating the model's confidence in their ability to win. These factors suggest a statistically sound bet on the Dolphins.

Kyle Pitts (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistics for Kyle Pitts show a clear trend of underperformance in scoring a touchdown in recent games. Over his last 5 games, he has a hit rate of 0/5 both at home and away. This trend extends even when looking at his last 10 games, where he only scored a touchdown once, and none at home. His overall hit rate is slightly better, with 8 touchdowns in 50 games and 6 out of 26 at home. However, his current streak for both overall and home games is zero. Given these statistics, it seems a risky bet to wager on Kyle Pitts scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game against the Miami Dolphins. The model edge of 0.138358477584322 also suggests a minimal advantage in favor of Pitts scoring a touchdown. Therefore, this bet seems to be more based on hope rather than solid statistical evidence.

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins : NA -7.5 Point Spread (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Atlanta Falcons are favored by 7.5 points in the spreads market, and based on their recent performance, there are several positive indicators supporting this bet. Looking at the home game data, the Falcons have a positive point differential (+7), higher total yards (420.4 vs 301.2), and fewer turnovers (0.6 vs 1.2). Additionally, the Falcons have a higher explosive rate for (0.235 vs 0.209). This trend of outperforming the opposition is also reflected in their overall L5 performance, as evidenced by the positive EPA difference (0.094). On the other hand, the away team has been struggling recently, with a negative point differential (-6.8), fewer total yards (276.8 vs 355.2), and more turnovers (1.6 vs 1.2). Their EPA difference is also negative (-7.924), and they have a worse record (1-4 overall, 0

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