Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on the Atlanta Falcons in the head-to-head market seems like a statistically sound decision. The Falcons have a model edge of 0.138974358974359, suggesting that they are statistically favored to win. While the Falcons' recent home record of 1-4 is concerning, they've performed better offensively at home, averaging 25.2 points and 397.2 total yards in the last five games, compared to their overall average of 18.4 points and 305.6 yards. The Falcons' opponents, on the other hand, have not performed as well on the road, scoring only 14.8 points on average in the last five games and gaining fewer yards than the Falcons. Furthermore, the Falcons' home turnover differential is better than the opposing team's away turnover differential (0.8 versus -0.8), which suggests that the Falcons are more likely to capitalize on mistakes in this game.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data for Tyler Allgeier scoring a touchdown at any time in the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers is mixed. While Allgeier's overall hit rate and home hit rate are low, his statistics improve significantly when playing against the Panthers, particularly at home. Over the last 20 games, Allgeier has scored touchdowns in 3 of 6 matches against Carolina and in 2 of 3 home games against them. His overall hit rate against Carolina is 50% and it increases to 66.67% for home games. Despite a recent lack of scoring, these specific stats against the Panthers suggest a higher probability for a touchdown in this game. However, considering his overall poor form, a bet on Allgeier scoring a touchdown involves a higher level of risk. The decision should be made based on the model's edge of 0.131583427276857, which indicates a potential advantage, but not a strong one.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers : Over 42.5 Total Points (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Over 42.5 bet for the game appears favorable when considering the teams' recent performances. The home team has an average score of 18.4 over their last 5 games and has allowed 24.6 points on average. This totals 43 points, already surpassing the over/under set at 42.5. The away team's scoring record further supports this bet. They have averaged 15 points per game and have conceded 20.6 points on average in their last 5 games, amounting to 35.6 points. Both teams' expected points added (EPA) statistics, which measure the contribution of each play towards scoring points, also support this over bet. The home team's EPA for is -2.9, while the away team's is -2.6, indicating that both teams' offenses are likely to contribute to a high-scoring game. Finally, the model edge of 0.020 suggests the model sees value in this

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro