MLB •
Rockies at Red Sox
•
Brenton Doyle
Under
1.5
Batter - Singles
Probability:
88.1%
Edge: 19.6%
Reasoning
Brenton Doyle (COL) Under 1.5 Singles (-217)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Brenton Doyle for Under 1.5 in the Batter Singles market is based on his recent performance data, particularly his averages in the last five games. Doyle's average for overall singles is 0.8, which is significantly below the line of 1.5. This trend continues when analyzing his away game data, where his average remains at 0.8. Furthermore, his average against the opposition (Boston Red Sox) is even lower at 0.6. His overall and away hit averages are also below the line, reinforcing the expectation of a lower performance. Although he has a current hit streak, it's only at 1 for overall and 3 for away games, which doesn't significantly influence the outcome. Therefore, the Under 1.5 bet for Doyle's performance is a data-driven choice.
MLB •
Rockies at Red Sox
•
Trevor Story
Over
0.5
Batter - Hits
Probability:
71.6%
Edge: 18.5%
Reasoning
Trevor Story (BOS) Over 0.5 Hits (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Trevor Story's recent performance indicates a strong likelihood of him getting over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game. His last five games show an average of 1.4 hits per game overall and an even higher average of 1.8 hits when playing at home. This suggests that Story performs better at home, making it more likely for him to hit over 0.5 in the upcoming home game. Additionally, his plate appearances (PA) average of 4.4 overall and 4.6 at home further increase the chances of him hitting. Although he is currently on a zero hit streak, his high hitting and PA averages suggest a high probability of him breaking this streak in the upcoming game. Thus, betting on Story to have over 0.5 hits is statistically justified.
MLB •
Rockies at Red Sox
•
Rockies at Red Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Rockies at Red Sox
•
Rockies at Red Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Rockies at Red Sox
•
Rockies at Red Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Dodgers at Brewers
•
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MLB •
Pirates at Royals
•
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MLB •
Dodgers at Brewers
•
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MLB •
Pirates at Royals
•
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MLB •
Dodgers at Brewers
•
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MLB •
Blue Jays at White Sox
•
Blue Jays at White Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Blue Jays at White Sox
•
Blue Jays at White Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Blue Jays at White Sox
•
Blue Jays at White Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Blue Jays at White Sox
•
Blue Jays at White Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Blue Jays at White Sox
•
Blue Jays at White Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Pirates at Royals
•
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MLB •
Dodgers at Brewers
•
Dodgers at Brewers Prop Bet
MLB •
Dodgers at Brewers
•
Dodgers at Brewers Prop Bet
MLB •
Blue Jays at White Sox
•
Blue Jays at White Sox Prop Bet
MLB •
Pirates at Royals
•
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MLB •
Pirates at Royals
•
Pirates at Royals Prop Bet
MLB •
Dodgers at Brewers
•
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MLB •
Pirates at Royals
•
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MLB •
Guardians at Astros
•
Guardians at Astros Prop Bet
MLB •
Guardians at Astros
•
Guardians at Astros Prop Bet
MLB •
Guardians at Astros
•
Guardians at Astros Prop Bet
MLB •
Guardians at Astros
•
Guardians at Astros Prop Bet
MLB •
Guardians at Astros
•
Guardians at Astros Prop Bet
MLB Prop Bets: Data-Driven Picks & Predictions
Step up to the plate with Bet Better's advanced analytics and AI-powered predictions for MLB Prop betting. Props allow you to wager on specific individual player performances—from a pitcher's total strikeouts to a hitter's total bases—adding a thrilling and strategic dimension to your MLB betting. Our platform analyzes deep statistical data, leveraging actuarial modeling and machine learning, to uncover MLB player prop picks with a quantifiable edge.
Understanding MLB Prop Betting Markets
MLB Props offer a vast array of betting opportunities, focusing on either pitcher or hitter performances. Understanding these markets is key to finding value:
MLB Pitcher Props
Common prop bets for starting pitchers and sometimes relievers include:
- Strikeouts (K's) Props: Betting over or under a pitcher's projected total strikeouts for the game. This is one of the most popular pitcher props.
- Outs Recorded Props: Wagering on the total number of outs a starting pitcher will record (e.g., Over/Under 17.5 outs).
- Hits Allowed Props: Predicting whether a pitcher will allow over or under a certain number of hits.
- Earned Runs Allowed Props: Betting on the number of earned runs a pitcher will concede.
- Walks (BB) Issued Props: Wagering on a pitcher's total walks issued.
- To Record a Win Props: Betting on whether a starting pitcher will be credited with the win (Yes/No).
- Quality Start Props: Betting on a pitcher to record a quality start (at least 6 innings pitched with 3 or fewer earned runs allowed) (Yes/No).
MLB Hitter Props
For batters, common prop bets include:
- Hits Props: Betting over or under a player's projected total hits (e.g., O/U 0.5, O/U 1.5 hits).
- Home Runs Props: Wagering on whether a player will hit a home run (Yes/No), or sometimes Over/Under 0.5 home runs.
- Total Bases Props: Predicting a player's total bases accumulated (Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4).
- Runs Scored Props: Betting on a player's total runs scored.
- RBIs (Runs Batted In) Props: Wagering on a player's total RBIs.
- Stolen Bases Props: Betting on whether a player will steal a base (Yes/No).
- Hits + Runs + RBIs Props: A combined bet on a player's total hits, runs, and RBIs.
- Strikeouts (by Hitter) Props: Betting on whether a hitter will strike out over or under a certain number of times.
Each MLB prop type requires specific analysis of player skills, matchups, ballpark factors, and game conditions.
Analyzing Player Matchups and Statistics for MLB Props
Successful MLB prop betting relies on meticulous data analysis. For pitchers, our models evaluate strikeout rates (K/9), walk rates (BB/9), opponent batting average, WHIP, and splits (vs. LHH/RHH). For hitters, we analyze batting average, on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), ISO (isolated power), recent form, and performance against specific pitcher types or individual pitchers (BvP data, used cautiously due to sample sizes). Lineup position, injuries, and bullpen strength also play crucial roles.
Finding Value in MLB Prop Odds
Comparing Projections to Sportsbook Lines
The essence of finding value in MLB props is comparing our data-driven statistical projections to the lines offered by sportsbooks. Oddsmakers establish lines based on various inputs, but sophisticated analytical models like ours can often pinpoint discrepancies. When our model indicates a higher probability for an outcome than the sportsbook's odds imply, it signals a positive expected value (+EV) and a potentially profitable betting opportunity on an MLB prop bet.
AI-Powered MLB Prop Predictions
Our AI algorithms are specifically trained on extensive historical MLB player performance data, game logs, situational stats, and contextual factors (like ballpark dimensions and weather) to generate precise MLB player prop predictions. These aren't just averages; they stem from advanced modeling that considers variance, specific matchups, recent performance trends, and pitcher/hitter tendencies, offering an objective assessment of a player's likelihood to exceed or fall short of their prop line.
Strategies for Betting MLB Props
Developing a robust MLB prop betting strategy goes beyond basic statistics. Key considerations include:
- Pitcher vs. Hitter Matchups: Analyze how a hitter performs against the specific starting pitcher (and vice-versa), considering handedness (L/R splits) and historical success (BvP, with caution).
- Ballpark Factors: Some parks are hitter-friendly (e.g., Coors Field, Great American Ball Park), while others favor pitchers (e.g., Oracle Park, Petco Park). Wind direction and temperature also matter.
- Umpire Tendencies: Certain umpires have wider or tighter strike zones, which can impact pitcher strikeout totals and hitter walk rates.
- Recent Form & Usage: Is a pitcher on a hot streak with high K's? Is a hitter seeing the ball well? How deep are pitchers typically going into games recently?
- Lineup Position: Hitters at the top of the order generally get more plate appearances, increasing opportunities for hits, runs, and total bases.
- Injury Reports: Injuries to key players can shift offensive or defensive responsibilities and opportunities.
- Line Shopping: Odds and lines for the same MLB prop can differ across sportsbooks. Always shop for the best value.
Our platform helps simplify this analysis by providing data-driven insights, projected stats, and clear "Prob" (Probability) and "Edge" metrics for each MLB prop.
Maximize Your Edge in MLB Prop Betting
Bet Better is your essential tool for navigating the dynamic MLB prop market. By leveraging our AI-driven analytics and expert insights, you gain a significant advantage in identifying value bets and crafting a more informed betting approach. Explore our current MLB Player Prop Bets to see today's data-backed predictions and edges. Always remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy America's pastime!