Austin Hooper (NE) Under 1.5 Receptions (-135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under bet on Austin Hooper for under 1.5 receptions in the New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons game is supported by his recent performance and hit rates. Over his last five games, Hooper has only hit the over 1.5 receptions mark twice (a hit rate of 2/5), and his hit rate drops to 1/3 over his last three games. Looking at a broader sample size, Hooper's overall hit rate for over 1.5 receptions is 22/57, less than 40%. In home games, his hit rate is slightly better at 12/28, but still less than 50%. Hooper is also currently on a hit streak of zero, indicating that he has not recently been surpassing this mark. The statistical data suggests that the under 1.5 receptions bet for Hooper is a reasonable one.

Andrei Iosivas (CIN) Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 18.5 bet on Andrei Iosivas' reception yards in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears game appears statistically sound. Iosivas' recent performance data shows a consistent pattern of failing to exceed this yardage marker. His overall hit rate in the last three, five, and ten games is 0/3, 0/5, and 2/10 respectively, reflecting a low probability of meeting or surpassing the 18.5 reception yard mark. The player's overall hit rate is 13/32, further reinforcing the under 18.5 bet. His home game performance doesn't significantly deviate from these figures, with a 7/18 overall home hit rate. Moreover, Iosivas is currently on a zero-game hit streak both in general and in home games. All these stats indicate that betting under 18.5 for Iosivas' reception yards is a rational choice based on historical performance.

Andrei Iosivas (CIN) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 17.5 player reception yards bet for Andrei Iosivas in the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears game is supported by recent performance data. Over his last five games, both overall and at home, Iosivas has not hit the over on this prop bet. His hit rate for the last 20 games is just 25% overall and 39% at home. This suggests a lack of consistency in achieving more than 17.5 reception yards per game. His overall hit rate of 41% (13 out of 32 games) is also less than impressive. Additionally, his current hit streak is at zero, meaning he's currently on a run of games where he hasn't achieved over 17.5 reception yards. Therefore, the under bet for Iosivas, supported by a model edge of 0.089, is a reasonable choice based on his recent performance trends.

Tanner Hudson (CIN) Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Tanner Hudson for Over 7.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears game is a statistically sound decision. Hudson has a solid performance history, especially at home games. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 16/20, and it increases to 13/14 at home, suggesting Hudson performs particularly well in home environments. His performance against the Bears is also noteworthy, with a 100% hit rate in all categories, whether it's overall, at home, or specifically in the last 3, 5, or 10 games. Despite a current hit streak of 0, these historical performance metrics indicate a strong chance of Hudson exceeding 7.5 reception yards in the upcoming game. The model edge of approximately 0.07 also provides additional support to this bet, further justifying the Over 7.5 bet for Hudson in this game.

Tanner Hudson (CIN) Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Tanner Hudson to achieve Over 7.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is supported by a solid statistical history. Hudson shows a strong home performance, hitting the target in 9 out of the last 10 home games and 13 out of 14 overall. His overall hit rate is also impressive with 24 out of 29. Furthermore, his record against the Chicago Bears is flawless, hitting 1/1 both overall and at home. In terms of recent performance, he has achieved the target in 3 out of the last 5 games and 7 out of the last 10. Although his current hit streak is 0, his strong historical performance against the Bears and at home games makes this bet statistically appealing. A model edge of 0.057 also implies a slight advantage. Therefore, the data suggests a reasonable likelihood of Hudson exceeding 7.5 reception yards in the upcoming game.

Austin Hooper (NE) Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Austin Hooper to go over 8.5 player reception yards may seem challenging given his recent performance, but a deeper dive into the stats provides some optimism. Hooper's overall hit rate of 38/57 indicates a 67% success rate, suggesting he often surpasses the 8.5-yard mark. However, his performance has been inconsistent recently, with a current hit streak of zero and a hit rate of 0/5 in his last five games. His home hit rate is slightly better at 1/5 in the last five games and 5/10 in the last ten games, indicating he performs better at home. Given that the game is against the Patriots, this home advantage could be significant. The model edge of 0.038 is not substantial but suggests a slight advantage in favor of the bet. Considering all the data, it's a risky bet, but one that could pay off given Hooper's overall performance and home advantage.

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