Us Open: Jessica Pegula vs Barbora Krejcikova — Barbora Krejcikova Moneyline (+200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Barbora Krejcikova presents excellent value at odds of 3 against Jessica Pegula due to her superior recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Krejcikova has a 60% win rate over her last five matches, while Pegula's is only 50%. Krejcikova's first serve percentage stands at 63.4%, winning 64.9% of her first serve points, indicating strong serving efficiency. In contrast, Pegula has similar first-serve stats but struggles more on second serves, with only 47.5% points won compared to Krejcikova's 47.5%. Additionally, Krejcikova's impressive 67.2% break point save rate demonstrates her resilience in pressure situations. This is crucial against Pegula, who has a higher opponent break point save rate at 2.63. Overall, Krejcikova's solid serving and pressure performance make her the value pick in this matchup.

Us Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek — Iga Swiatek Moneyline (-370)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Iga Swiatek presents compelling value at 1.27 against Amanda Anisimova, backed by superior recent form and serving metrics. Swiatek boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last 5 matches, coupled with a solid first-serve percentage of 65.3% and first points won at 65.8%. Her second-serve points won rate of 43.7% further enhances her ability to capitalize on pressure situations. Moreover, Swiatek's break point save percentage of 57.1% indicates her resilience under pressure, while Anisimova's form has been less consistent. Swiatek's sharp overall serve effectiveness, combined with her ability to win crucial points, suggests she will dominate in this hard-court matchup. Given the model probability of 94.98% against the market's 78.74%, the edge of 16.2% solidifies Swiatek as the value pick in this encounter.

Us Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova — Aryna Sabalenka Moneyline (-303)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Aryna Sabalenka presents strong value at 1.33 against Marketa Vondrousova, supported by her superior recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Sabalenka boasts an impressive 80% win rate in her last five matches and a high first-serve percentage of 65.6%, winning 66.9% of first-serve points. In contrast, Vondrousova has shown vulnerability, with only a 63% first-serve percentage and a notably lower 72.3% first-point win rate. Sabalenka's second-serve points won (46.8%) also exceed Vondrousova’s (44.9%), indicating a stronger overall serve. Moreover, Sabalenka's BP save percentage (53.1%) is competitive, while Vondrousova struggles with a 63.5% save rate, highlighting critical pressure point differences. With a model probability of 81.2% versus an implied probability of 75.2% for the odds, Sabalenka is the clear value side in this matchup.

Us Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Carlos Alcaraz — Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline (-2000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing