Us Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz — Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline (-400)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Carlos Alcaraz offers significant value at 1.25 against Novak Djokovic due to his superior recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Alcaraz's last five matches show a first-serve percentage of 65.2% and a first-point win rate of 81.1%, indicating strong serving efficiency. In contrast, Djokovic's recent serving metrics reveal a first-serve win rate of only 68.1%, which is lower than Alcaraz's. Moreover, Alcaraz's second-serve points won at 56.5% outperform Djokovic's 40.1%, demonstrating greater resilience under pressure. Djokovic's average break point save percentage of 92% is compelling, yet Alcaraz's ability to convert pressure points enhances his chances significantly. Alcaraz's recent win rate of 60% over the last ten matches, combined with a positive winners-to-unforced-errors ratio of 2.03, supports his momentum. These factors collectively point to Alcaraz as the value side in this matchup.

Us Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula — Aryna Sabalenka Moneyline (-312)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Aryna Sabalenka is the value pick against Jessica Pegula at the US Open due to superior recent form and serve efficiency. Sabalenka boasts an 80% win rate over her last five matches, while Pegula’s form shows only a 50% win rate during the same span. On serve, Sabalenka's first-serve percentage is strong at 65.6%, with 66.9% of first points won, compared to Pegula's 61.8% first-serve percentage and 72.2% first points won. Additionally, Sabalenka's second-serve points won are solid at 46.8%, while Pegula's are slightly better at 49.7%. Sabalenka has a distinct edge in break point saving, successfully saving 53.1% compared to Pegula's 31.1%. Furthermore, Sabalenka's ability to generate aces (5.2% rate) versus Pegula's higher double fault rate (8.1%) further enhances her winning potential, making her the more favorable bet