Us Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Jaume Munar — Jaume Munar Moneyline (+185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In the matchup between Lorenzo Musetti and Jaume Munar at the US Open, Munar presents excellent value at 2.85 due to several key statistical advantages. Over their last five matches, Munar has demonstrated a solid first-serve percentage of 64.6% and won 64.3% of his first-serve points, outperforming Musetti's recent form. Additionally, Munar's overall serve points won percentage stands at 57.4%, indicating reliability under pressure. Munar has shown strong performance in critical moments, with a break point save percentage exceeding 102%, suggesting he can withstand pressure against Musetti. Despite both players having a win rate of 20% in their last five matches, Munar's superior statistics in serve efficiency and pressure points position him favorably. Given the implied probability of 35% compared to a model probability of 57.8%, Munar offers significant value in this matchup.

Us Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek — Iga Swiatek Moneyline (-370)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Iga Swiatek presents significant value at 1.27 against Ekaterina Alexandrova, showcasing superior recent form and serve performance. Swiatek boasts an 80% win rate in her last five matches, demonstrating consistent dominance. Her first-serve percentage (65.3%) aligns with her ability to control points, winning 65.8% of first-serve points. Additionally, she converts 43.7% of second-serve points, indicating a solid all-around game. In contrast, Alexandrova's serve statistics are less impressive, with a lower first-serve win rate (approximately 63.6%) and only a 55.2% success on second serves. Swiatek's ability to save break points (57.1%) also overshadows Alexandrova's higher break point save percentage (103.3%), suggesting Swiatek can withstand pressure effectively. Given these metrics, Swiatek’s favorable head-to-head context and overall form make her the clear value side in this matchup.