Aus Open Singles: Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys — Karolina Pliskova Moneyline (+468)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In the matchup between Karolina Pliskova and Madison Keys on hard court, Pliskova presents excellent value at odds of 5.68. Over her last five matches, she boasts a solid first serve percentage of 57.69% and wins 65.48% of her first serve points, demonstrating her effectiveness under pressure. Additionally, her overall serve points won rate stands at 52.61%, coupled with a break point save percentage of 52.31%, indicating resilience in critical moments. Pliskova's recent form includes a win rate of 60% in her last five matches, compared to Keys' less consistent performance. The model probability of 21.35% versus the bookmaker's implied probability of 17.61% highlights a favorable edge of 3.7%. Given these metrics, Pliskova's serve performance and recent form suggest she has a strong chance to outperform her odds against Keys.

Aus Open Singles: Jessica Pegula vs Oksana Selekhmeteva — Jessica Pegula Moneyline (-2500)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Jessica Pegula presents a strong value pick against Oksana Selekhmeteva at the Australian Open. Pegula's recent form is impressive, with a 60% win rate over her last five matches and a 70% win rate over the last ten. Her serve performance is particularly notable; she boasts a first-serve percentage of 60.67%, winning 57.69% of those points, and a solid second-serve points won rate of 40.40%. In comparison, Selekhmeteva's serve metrics are untested, as no relevant statistics are available. Pegula also has a better BP save percentage of 38.67%, indicating her ability to handle pressure situations effectively. With an implied probability of 96.15% aligning closely with the model's 98%, Pegula represents a reliable bet. Her comprehensive serving prowess, combined with strong recent form, makes her the clear favorite in this matchup.