Us Open: Diane Parry vs Marta Kostyuk — Marta Kostyuk Moneyline (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Marta Kostyuk presents an excellent value pick at 1.26 against Diane Parry, given her superior recent form and serve performance. Over her last five matches, Kostyuk has a solid first-serve percentage of 49.6% and wins 61.4% of her first-serve points, crucial for maintaining pressure on Parry. In contrast, Parry's ability to break serve is hampered by a lower 28.5% break point save rate, indicating vulnerability in critical moments. Kostyuk's average second-serve points won (38.3%) is comparable to Parry's, yet her overall service game remains more consistent. Additionally, Kostyuk’s recent win rate of 60% over her last five matches suggests she is in form, while Parry's win rate mirrors this, but her serve efficiency is less effective. Kostyuk's edge in pressure scenarios and overall service reliability makes her the stronger choice in this matchup.

Us Open: Magdalena Frech vs Coco Gauff — Coco Gauff Moneyline (-1111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Coco Gauff is the clear pick against Magdalena Frech based on superior serve performance and recent form. Gauff boasts a strong 60.9% first-serve percentage and wins 65.9% of her first serve points, significantly outpacing Frech’s opponent averages of 55.3% and 73.2%, respectively. Additionally, Gauff's second-serve points won (44.6%) is competitive compared to Frech's opponents (54.5%). Gauff's recent form shows an 80% win rate over her last 10 matches, highlighting her consistency, while Frech's 60% win rate suggests vulnerability. Furthermore, Gauff's ability to save break points (48.0%) surpasses Frech's opponents' average of just 25%, indicating resilience under pressure. Gauff's edge in serve metrics combined with her strong performance history on hard courts makes her a highly favorable bet at 1.09, with a model probability of 98% affirming this value.

Us Open: Chak Lam Coleman Wong vs Andrey Rublev — Andrey Rublev Moneyline (-1667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Andrey Rublev is the clear value side against Chak Lam Coleman Wong at the US Open, evidenced by his superior recent form and serve performance. Rublev boasts a strong 69.3% first serve percentage and wins 72.97% of first serve points, both indicating a dominant serve that will be crucial on hard courts. His overall serve points won percentage of 64.20% complements this, allowing him to maintain pressure on opponents. In contrast, Wong's recent form is concerning, with a mere 20% win rate over his last five matches. Rublev also excels in pressure situations, with a 59.1% break point save rate, suggesting he can fend off crucial points effectively. The statistical edge of 3% in Rublev's favor (model probability at 97.4% vs. implied probability of 94.4%) reinforces this pick, making it a compelling choice for bettors.