Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Wednesday 12/31

The bet on the Carolina Panthers in the head-to-head market is primarily supported by their superior overall performance metrics and head-to-head record against the away team. Despite a less impressive home record in the last 5 games (1-4), the Panthers have outperformed the away team in terms of the expected points added (EPA) for both passing and rushing. Importantly, they have maintained a positive turnover differential in home games, which could be a decisive factor. Furthermore, the Panthers have proven to be a difficult opponent for the away team, winning 4 out of their last 5 encounters. While the model edge is not substantial at 0.154, these factors combined provide a compelling rationale for betting on the Carolina Panthers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (+120)

The bet on the Carolina Panthers in the head-to-head market is supported by their strong performance against the opposition, with a record of 4-1 in their last five encounters. Despite a weak recent home record (1-4), the Panthers have performed well in terms of scoring, averaging 21 points per game, and have a positive turnover differential at home. On the other hand, the away team has struggled in their overall recent performance, with a score differential of -5 and a negative EPA difference of -6.8. Furthermore, the away team has inferior offensive statistics, with 256.6 average total yards for, compared to the Panthers' 319.2. The model edge of 0.146 also leans in favor of the Panthers, indicating a statistical advantage. In summary, the Panthers' superior head-to-head record, better recent offensive performance, and positive model edge make them the stronger bet in this matchup.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 43.5 Total Points (-110)

The over 43.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this NFL game is supported by the scoring data from both teams. The home team has averaged 23 points per game over their last five matches, while the away team has averaged 24.8 points. This combined average of 47.8 is notably higher than the outcome point of 43.5. Furthermore, the home team's defense has given up an average of 27 points per game, and the away team's defense has allowed 18 points. This means we can expect a relatively high-scoring game based on these averages. It's also worth noting the 'model edge' statistic of 0.138, which indicates that the model sees value in this over bet. The explosive rate for both teams also indicates a propensity for big plays which could lead to higher scoring. Combining these factors, the data supports a bet on over 43.5 points for this game.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 43.5 Total Points (-110)

The over 43.5 bet for the game between these two teams is backed by a few key statistics. Firstly, the home team has scored an average of 23 points while the away team has scored an average of 24.8 points in their last five games. This averages to a total of 47.8 points, which is comfortably over the 43.5 point line. The home team has also conceded an average of 27 points and the away team an average of 18 points in their last five games. This defensive record increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Additionally, the home team's overall EPA (Expected Points Added) for is positive, suggesting they often score more points than expected. The away team's overall EPA against is negative, indicating they often allow fewer points than expected. However, these figures are outweighed by the home team's high average points scored and the away team's strong offensive performance. Lastly, the model edge of 0

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks : Over 49.5 Total Points (-112)

Betting the over on 49.5 points for this game is a statistically viable decision based on both teams' most recent five-game data. The home team has been successful offensively, scoring an average of 34.6 points per game, while the away team has notched 29.2 points per game. This combined scoring average (63.8) easily surpasses the point total set by the market. Moreover, the home team has seen an average of 55.8 total points in their games, considering both scores for and against. Similarly, the away team's games have had an average total of 43.6 points. Both these numbers suggest a high-scoring environment. Also, both teams have impressive records, with each team winning five of their last overall five games. This suggests both teams' offenses are performing well. Thus, from a statistical viewpoint, betting over 49.5 in the totals market seems a sound decision.