Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Thursday 01/01

The bet on the Carolina Panthers in the 'h2h' market is supported by a careful analysis of the data. The model gives the Panthers an edge of 0.154571428571429, which is a significant advantage in betting terms. Looking at the teams' recent performances, the Panthers have outperformed their opponents in several key areas. For instance, their home overall point differential is -1.6, which is far better than the away team's -5. Moreover, their home overall EPA (Expected Points Added) differential is -1.41947828825227, which, despite being a negative figure, is still superior to the away team's -6.83808140067599. This suggests the Panthers have been more effective overall in their offensive and defensive plays. Additionally, the Panthers have a superior recent record against the opposing team, with 4 wins to 1 loss in the last 5 head-to-head matchups. This indicates a historical advantage that could

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 45.5 Total Points (-105)

The reasoning for betting on Over 45.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is largely based on the scoring and yards data from both teams. The home team has averaged 23 points per game over the last five games, while the away team has averaged 24.8 points. This means the average total score is 47.8, which is above the line set for this bet. Furthermore, both teams have been gaining significant yardage, with the home team averaging 365.2 yards and the away team 345.6 yards, indicating strong offensive performances. The home team has also been allowing a significant number of points, with an average of 27 points scored against them in the last five games, which could contribute to a high-scoring game. Although there are some variables such as turnovers and explosive rate that could impact the total score, the consistent scoring and yardage data suggest that an Over 45.5 bet is reasonable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers : NA Moneyline (+120)

Betting on the Carolina Panthers to win in the head-to-head market is supported by their superior overall performance data over their last five games. The Panthers' point differential is better than their opponents', with a difference of -1.6 compared to -5, indicating that despite losing more games than they've won, the Panthers have kept the games closer. Carolina has also outperformed the opposing team in terms of total yards for, averaging 319.2 yards per game versus 256.6 for their opponents. Moreover, the Panthers' explosive rate for (0.217) is higher than their opponents' (0.167), suggesting that Carolina has a higher likelihood of making big plays. This is further substantiated by their EPA (Expected Points Added) for passing, which, despite being negative, is better than their opponents' (-1.053). Lastly, the Panthers have a superior record against this specific opponent, with a 4-1 record in their last five encounters.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 44.5 Total Points (-115)

The Over 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market is backed by several key statistics from the last five games. Firstly, both teams have shown an ability to score, with the home team averaging 23 points and the away team 24.8 points. This leads to an average combined score of 47.8, which is above the over/under mark set at 44.5. Also, the home team's defense has conceded an average of 27 points per game, while the away team's defense has allowed 18 points per game. This suggests that both teams' offenses could have opportunities to score. Furthermore, the home team's Expected Points Added (EPA) against is 7.56, while the away team's EPA for is 1.01, which indicates some potential for the away team to score against the home team's defense. Finally, the model edge of 0.127 suggests that the model sees value in the Over bet

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks : Over 48.5 Total Points (-105)

The bet on Over 48.5 points in the 'totals' market for this game is driven by the strong offensive performance of both teams in their last 5 games. The home team has been scoring an average of 34.6 points per game, while the away team has been scoring an average of 29.2 points. This results in a combined average of 63.8 points, which is significantly above the outcome point of 48.5. Furthermore, the home team's explosive rate for (0.2577) and the away team's explosive rate for (0.2222) indicate both teams have a high likelihood of making significant yardage gains, which can contribute to higher scoring. Moreover, both teams have strong records with the home team winning 5-0 overall and 4-1 at home, while the away team also has a 5-0 overall record and 4-1 away. This implies that both teams possess strong offensive capabilities