New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons : NA Moneyline (+120)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data provided favors a bet on the New York Jets in the head-to-head market. Despite both teams having a recent losing record (Jets 2-3, Opponents 1-4), the Jets have a slight advantage in terms of model edge at 0.192. Furthermore, the Jets have a less negative EPA difference in their last 5 games (-5.53 vs -5.35), indicating a more efficient offensive performance. The Jets also show a lower turnover difference than their opponents, suggesting better ball protection. The Jets' opponents have allowed more total yards in their recent games (393.8 vs Jets' 311), indicating a weaker defense. Lastly, the Jets have a higher explosive rate, indicating a greater potential for significant plays. Although the Jets lost the last game against these opponents, these factors indicate a probability of a different outcome in this game.
New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +2.5 Point Spread (-102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the New York Jets at 2.5 in the spreads market is primarily due to their performance data compared to their opponents. Looking at the provided L5 data, the Jets have a slightly better overall score for (21.8 vs 19.2) and a smaller point differential (-4 vs -5). This suggests they are generally scoring more and conceding less in their recent games. Furthermore, the Jets have a positive turnover differential in their overall last 5 games (+0.4), which indicates they are better at capitalizing on their opponents' mistakes. Additionally, they have a higher explosive rate for (0.1968 vs 0.1767), implying they are more likely to make big plays. In contrast, the home team has struggled, with a home record of 1-4 in their last 5 games and an overall record of 2-3. Given these statistics, the bet on the Jets at 2.5 in the spreads
New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +2.5 Point Spread (-104)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on New York Jets at 2.5 in the 'spreads' market is backed by several factors. First, the Jets have demonstrated superior offensive performance in recent games, averaging 21.8 points and 289 total yards over the last five games compared to the home team's 19.2 points and 284.4 yards. Additionally, the Jets have a positive turnover differential in their overall last five games, indicating better ball control. The home team, on the other hand, has a negative turnover differential, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. Although both teams have struggled in their most recent games, with the Jets going 1-4 and the home team going 2-3, the Jets have outperformed the home team in both overall and home/away expected points added (EPA). This suggests they've been more efficient at converting plays into points. Finally, the Jets have already secured a victory in their last encounter with the home team, suggesting they have a strategy
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals : NA Moneyline (-143)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
This bet supports the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a head-to-head (h2h) match due to their stronger stats in several critical areas. Firstly, the model edge of 0.143981093219411 implies a statistical advantage for the Buccaneers. Further, the Buccaneers have an overall score of 23.6 in their last five games, outperforming their opponents who score 18.8. The Buccaneers also have a higher average total yardage (364.2) compared to their opponents (278.8). The Buccaneers also exhibit a better turnover difference in their recent away games (1) than the opponents in their home games (0.2), implying a better control of ball possession. The Buccaneers also outperform in the explosive rate for with 0.225709142302125 compared to their opponents 0.185367499605197 indicating better big-play ability. Overall, these stats show the Buccaneers as the statistically superior team for this h2h bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals : NA Moneyline (-154)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 'h2h' market for this game is a logical one, based on statistical analysis. Despite both teams having a 1-4 record in their last five games, the Buccaneers have shown a better performance in key areas. They have a positive model edge of 0.126155781276452, indicating that the predicted outcome is more likely than the current odds suggest. The Buccaneers also have a better turnover differential in their last five games overall (0.8), implying they have been more successful at taking advantage of opponents' mistakes. Moreover, they have had a more explosive rate in their last five away games (0.238302895829778), indicating a higher likelihood of making big plays. Lastly, the Buccaneers have won the last encounter against this opponent, which might give them a psychological edge. Therefore, the statistical data provides a solid rationale for betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals : Under 43.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 43.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this NFL game is substantiated by a few key statistical insights. First, recent performance data shows both teams have struggled offensively. The home team has averaged just 18.8 points in their last 5 games while the away team averaged slightly better at 23.6 points. This totals to an average of 42.4 points which is below the point spread of 43.5. Also, both teams have a negative point differential in their last 5 games (-7.8 and -7.6) suggesting they have been outscored by their opponents. The home team's Expected Points Added (EPA) for their passing game is extremely negative at -13.95, which demonstrates a lack of offensive efficiency. Similarly, the away team's overall EPA is negative at -5.35. The turnover differential for both teams is also quite low, which may limit scoring opportunities. Lastly, both teams
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