Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Monday 11/03

The New England Patriots are favored by 4.5 points in the 'spreads' market, and the data supports this outcome. The Patriots have an impressive home record over their last five games, going 5-0 overall and 3-2 at home. They've outscored their opponents by a significant margin, with a home score-for average of 30.6 points versus a score-against average of 15.6 points. The Patriots also have a positive turnover differential, which indicates they've been effective in both executing plays and avoiding mistakes. In contrast, the away team has struggled, with a negative point differential over the last five games and a 2-3 record both overall and on the road. They've been outscored by their opponents and have a negative turnover differential. Given these factors, the Patriots' strong home performance and the away team's struggles on the road, the bet on New England Patriots -4.5 seems statistically solid.

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers : NA +12.5 Point Spread (-102)

The Carolina Panthers are primed to cover the spread of 12.5 points, based on their recent performance and matchup statistics. The Panthers' last-five-game (L5) data paints a favorable picture. They have an overall L5 point differential of +4 and an even stronger home L5 point differential of +12.8, indicating they outscore opponents significantly at home. In contrast, the away team has an overall L5 point differential of -9.4 and a road L5 point differential of -7.4, demonstrating they tend to lose by significant margins, especially on the road. Furthermore, the Panthers have strong Expected Points Added (EPA) stats, particularly at home, with a home L5 EPA differential of +14.19 compared to the away team's road L5 EPA differential of -6.83. This suggests the Panthers are adding more points per play than their opponents, especially on home turf. Lastly, the Panthers' record at home in

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers : NA +13.5 Point Spread (-112)

The betting rationale for the Carolina Panthers with a 13.5 spread in this matchup is based on several key performance statistics. Firstly, the Panthers have a positive recent home record (4-1) compared to the away team's less impressive away record (2-3). They also outperformed the away team in terms of points scored and allowed per game, with a home point differential of 12.8 compared to the away team's negative point differential of -7.4. The Panthers also have superior expected points added (EPA) statistics, both overall and at home, indicating more effective offensive and defensive plays. Their overall EPA differential is 6.27, while their home EPA differential significantly outperforms the away team's negative EPA differential. The Panthers also have fewer turnovers and a higher explosive rate, suggesting a more dynamic and less error-prone offense. Given these statistics, the Panthers have a strong chance of covering the 13.5 spread.

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 45.5 Total Points (-108)

Considering the last five games' performance data, the home team has been consistently scoring above the average with a score of 30.6, while conceding only 15.6 points. This gives them a favorable point difference of 15 and an impressive overall record of 5-0. The away team, on the other hand, has been struggling with an average score of 15.6 and conceding 25 points, resulting in a negative point difference of -9.4 and a less impressive record of 2-3. The home team's 'expected points added' (EPA) for and against are also notably high, indicating strong offensive and defensive play. Moreover, both teams have a positive turnover difference, suggesting fewer mistakes that could limit scoring. When combining the average scores of both teams from the last five games (30.6 + 15.6), it surpasses the set total of 45.5. Therefore, statistically, betting on 'Over 45

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 45.5 Total Points (-110)

The bet on "Over 45.5" in the totals market for this NFL game is supported by several key statistics from the last five games for both teams. Firstly, the home team has been scoring an average of 30.6 points per game, while allowing an average of 15.6 points. The away team, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 15.6 points and allowing an average of 25 points. Combining these stats, the average total points scored in a game involving these two teams is around 46.8, which is higher than the target of 45.5. Moreover, the home team has a positive point differential and an overall winning record, showing they have been able to outscore their opponents. The away team's point differential is negative, but they are still contributing a significant number of points per game. Finally, the model edge of 0.0788 suggests that the model sees value in betting on Over