Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars : NA -4.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Cincinnati Bengals' recent performance presents a compelling case for a bet on them at -4.5 in the spreads market. Over the last five games, they have maintained an undefeated record, while their opponents have lost three games. The Bengals' average point differential in the last five games (+7.4) exceeds the spread, indicating they have been outscoring opponents by a margin greater than the spread offered. Moreover, the Bengals have a positive turnover differential, which could be a critical factor in this game. Defensively, they have allowed fewer points (18) and yards (299.2) per game than their opponents have scored (21.6) and gained (344.2). Additionally, the Bengals' Expected Points Added (EPA) differential over the last five games is significantly higher (+8.8) than their opponents' (+1.6), suggesting they are more efficient in converting their possessions into points.
Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Rams : Under 38.5 Total Points (-120)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Under 38.5 bet for the NA vs NA game is supported by several key statistical insights. Firstly, the home team has been struggling offensively, averaging only 19.2 points per game in their last five matches, which is significantly lower than the outcome point of 38.5. Additionally, their point differential of -8.4 and an expected points added (EPA) differential of -9.3 suggest they have been outperformed by their opponents. Their record is also poor, with no wins in their last five games. On the other hand, the away team has a better point differential of 3.2 and a positive EPA differential, indicating a stronger performance. However, their average score for in the last five games is only 20.2 points, not enough to significantly threaten the under 38.5 bet. With both teams struggling to reach a combined score of 38.5 in recent games, betting Under 38.5 seems a statistically
Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars : Under 52.5 Total Points (-120)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Under 52.5 in the 'totals' market is backed by several key statistics from both teams' last five games. The home team's overall score for and against are 25.4 and 18 respectively, averaging a total of 43.4 points per game, significantly under the 52.5 bet. Similarly, the away team's overall score for and against are 21.6 and 20 respectively, averaging a total of 41.6 points per game. Additionally, the away team's performance away from home has been poor, with an average score for of 15.2 and against of 26.2, further reducing the likely total points. Lastly, the home team's overall EPA (Expected Points Added) differential is positive (8.83) indicating defensive strength, while the away team's negative EPA differential (-12.01) when playing away also suggests a lower scoring game. Therefore, the combined data supports the Under 52
Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars : NA -2.5 Point Spread (-135)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistics favor a bet on the Cincinnati Bengals at -2.5 in the spreads market for several reasons. Firstly, their recent performance has been stronger than their opponents, with the Bengals achieving a 5-0 overall record in their last five games, compared to the away team's 2-3. They've also outperformed their rivals in terms of scoring, with an average of 25.4 points per game at home versus the away team's 21.6. The Bengals' Expected Points Added (EPA) statistics are also superior, with a home overall EPA difference of 8.83 compared to the away team's 1.64. This suggests the Bengals have been more efficient with their possessions. They also have an impressive turnover difference at home, forcing 1.2 more turnovers than they've given up. Finally, the Bengals have a higher explosive rate, indicating more big-play potential. This amalgamation of data points towards a favourable outcome for the Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks : Over 47.5 Total Points (+102)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Over 47.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by several key statistics from both teams' last five games. The home team has an average score against of 28.4 and the away team has an average score for of 17.2, which combined already surpasses the 47.5 point total. Additionally, the home team has a higher score against than score for, indicating a weaker defense that could allow the away team to score more points. The home team also has a negative EPA, or Expected Points Added, differential, suggesting they allow more points than they score. The away team's point differential is also negative, albeit less so, indicating they too allow more points than they score. Finally, the away team's record in the last five away games is perfect at 5-0, suggesting they perform well in away games and are likely to contribute to a high total score.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks : Under 47.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting Under 47.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is driven by the recent scoring and defensive trends of both teams. The home team has an average score of 18.4 points in their last five games, while the visiting team has scored an average of 17.2 points. This combined score of 35.6 is well below the total set at 47.5. Furthermore, the home team has a negative point differential in their last five games (-10), indicating a struggling offense. The visiting team also has a negative point differential (-3.2), suggesting similar struggles. Additionally, both teams have negative Expected Points Added (EPA) differentials, indicating inefficiency in creating scoring opportunities. Moreover, both teams have high EPA against scores, meaning their defenses are letting opponents make plays that increase their chances of scoring. All these factors statistically support a bet on the Under 47.5 outcome.
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