Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 20 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -116 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at the Adelaide Crows hosting the Greater Western Sydney Giants at the Adelaide Oval, the smart money seems to lean towards the under for the Crows in the first quarter. The Crows have been solid at home, averaging just over 82 points in their last five home games. However, with their average first-quarter score hovering around 18.8 points, they might struggle to hit the 25.5 line against a disciplined Giants defense. The Giants have been stingy on the road, conceding only 76.4 points per game away from home. With the Crows' recent trend of starting games a bit slow, the under looks like a favorable play here. Expect both teams to come out firing, but the Crows may find it tough to snag a big first-quarter tally.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
G'day footy punters! When the Melbourne Demons square off against the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG, the stats paint a clear picture for our betting insight. The Demons have been firing on all cylinders lately, boasting an impressive average of 108.6 points per game over their last five matches. However, facing a solid defensive unit like the Bulldogs, who have only conceded 72.6 points on average recently, might slow down Melbourne's scoring prowess. Moreover, the Bulldogs have been stingy on the road, allowing just 70.8 points against in their last five away games. With the line set at 48.5 for the Demons' team total, the under looks appealing given the Bulldogs' defensive resilience. So, expect a fierce battle on the field, but the under could be the savvy play here. Get ready to watch the goals being hard-earned this weekend!
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Western Bulldogs 16.5 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Western Bulldogs at +16.5 in their clash against the Melbourne Demons is a savvy play. The Bulldogs might be the away team, but their recent form tells a compelling story. Over their last five away games, they've kept their opponents to an average of just 70.8 points while scoring an average of 65.4 points themselves. On the flip side, the Demons have shown a tendency to keep games tight at home, with a margin averaging just 4 points in their last five home games. However, the Bulldogs' defensive prowess and ability to restrict their opponents' scoring make them a strong contender to keep this game within the spread. With the Bulldogs' recent form and defensive grit, taking them at +16.5 looks like a smart move for footy punters looking for value in this matchup at the iconic MCG.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-122)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into the tactical trenches of this upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG. When it comes to the Demons, recent form tells a tale of offensive prowess. Over their last 5 home games, they've been relentless, averaging a whopping 94.6 points per match, fueled by an impressive 58.8 Inside50s and 31.4 Shotsatgoal on average. However, facing off against the Western Bulldogs, a team with a stingy defense conceding just 70.8 points on the road lately, the Demons might find it tough to keep up their scoring spree. With the Bulldogs holding firm and allowing just 72.6 points on average overall, the Under 25.5 on Melbourne's Team Totals in Q1 looks like a savvy play. Expect a hard-fought battle early on, with both teams locking horns defensively in the opening quarter.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why the under on St Kilda Saints' first-half team total of 48.5 is looking like a smart play against the Gold Coast Suns. When we look at the Saints' recent form, they've been solid but not prolific in front of the big sticks. Over their last five games, they've averaged around 11.2 target goals per match at home, scoring an average of 76.8 points. On the other hand, the Suns have been tightening up their defense, conceding an average of 95.2 points on the road and 92.6 overall. With the Saints' slightly below-average shots at goal and the Suns' improved defensive efforts, the under on St Kilda's first-half team total seems like a reasonable bet. Expect a hard-fought battle at Marvel Stadium with both teams locking horns in a low-scoring affair.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this juicy matchup between the West Coast Eagles and the Hawthorn Hawks at Optus Stadium. The Eagles, known for their attacking prowess, have been soaring in their last five games, averaging a solid 51.2 inside 50s and 23.2 shots at goal per home game. With an average of 11.6 target goals and 78.2 points scored in their recent home clashes, they are a force to be reckoned with in front of their fans. On the flip side, the Hawks have been leaky on the road, conceding an average of 73.4 points per away game and 75.2 points overall. With the Eagles' offensive firepower primed to exploit Hawthorn's defensive frailties, hitting over 33.5 points in the first half seems like a tantalizing bet. Expect the Eagles to come out firing and bagging goals early as they look to establish dominance from the get-go.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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