On Friday 31 July 2026, Las Vegas Aces play New York Liberty in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 199.5 Total Points, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 199.5 Total Points (-714)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As the Las Vegas Aces welcome the New York Liberty to Michelob Ultra Arena, expect a clash where defense takes center stage. Both teams boast robust defensive lineups that thrive on disrupting offensive flow, especially in high-pressure matchups like this one. The Aces have shown they can stifle opponents, and the Liberty - with their gritty play - are no strangers to lower-scoring affairs. With the combined scoring potential projected at around 165 points, the under seems like a savvy play. The pace of this game is likely to be methodical, with both squads taking their time to exploit mismatches rather than rushing into shots. In a playoff atmosphere, the stakes rise, and so does the intensity on defense. This isn't just a battle for points; it's a war for supremacy on the hardwood. Expect a game that might leave the scoreboard a little quieter than anticipated. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Liberty +14.5 on the Line (-476)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

As the Aces take on the Liberty at the Michelob Ultra Arena, this matchup is shaping up to be a thrilling clash of styles. The Aces thrive on their relentless pace and offensive firepower, but the Liberty have shown they can keep up, especially with their dynamic scoring options. Our model suggests a nail-biter, projecting only a two-point difference in favor of Las Vegas. Given the Liberty's ability to stretch the floor and capitalize on defensive lapses, they're well-positioned to cover the alternate spread of +14.5. The Aces might be formidable at home, but the Liberty have consistently risen to the occasion against elite teams. Expect New York to push the tempo and challenge Las Vegas defensively, making this spread not just manageable, but a compelling play for those looking to capitalize on a potential upset vibe in the air. Grab this opportunity before it slips away! It was priced at -476 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sabrina Ionescu Over 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-244)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Las Vegas Aces play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Friday 31 July 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sabrina Ionescu Over 19.5 Points and Rebounds. That is a player points and rebounds combined bet. It was priced at -244 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.10 if it lands. It is on at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jackie Young Under 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-118)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Las Vegas Aces play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Friday 31 July 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jackie Young Under 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists. That is a player points, rebounds and assists combined bet. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. It is on at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Breanna Stewart Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Las Vegas Aces play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Friday 31 July 2026. The bet we are looking at is Breanna Stewart Over 7.5 Rebounds. That is a player rebounds bet. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. It is on at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Las Vegas Aces v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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