Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek Prediction: Odds & Edge Breakdown

Us Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek — Iga Swiatek Moneyline (-370)

Iga Swiatek presents significant value at 1.27 against Ekaterina Alexandrova, showcasing superior recent form and serve performance. Swiatek boasts an 80% win rate in her last five matches, demonstrating consistent dominance. Her first-serve percentage (65.3%) aligns with her ability to control points, winning 65.8% of first-serve points. Additionally, she converts 43.7% of second-serve points, indicating a solid all-around game. In contrast, Alexandrova's serve statistics are less impressive, with a lower first-serve win rate (approximately 63.6%) and only a 55.2% success on second serves. Swiatek's ability to save break points (57.1%) also overshadows Alexandrova's higher break point save percentage (103.3%), suggesting Swiatek can withstand pressure effectively. Given these metrics, Swiatek’s favorable head-to-head context and overall form make her the clear value side in this matchup.