On Tuesday 4 August 2026, Chicago Sky play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 196.5 Total Points, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 196.5 Total Points (-714)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As the Chicago Sky prepare to host the Phoenix Mercury at Wintrust Arena, this matchup screams defensive intensity. Both teams have struggled to find their offensive rhythm recently, with the Sky leaning heavily on their defense to control games. The Mercury, while talented, have faced issues with consistency, often stalling in the half-court set. Given the pace of play and both squads' recent trends, it's hard to envision a scoring explosion. The Sky are particularly adept at slowing things down, and the Mercury's reliance on defensive schemes to stifle opponents further supports the notion that points will be at a premium. Our model suggests a combined total closer to 162, reinforcing the belief that the Under on 196.5 offers a solid pathway. With both teams focused on defensive execution, expect a low-scoring affair that hammers home the value in taking the Under. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chicago Sky +11.5 on the Line (-455)

Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing

As the Chicago Sky prepare to host the Phoenix Mercury at Wintrust Arena, the stage is set for a thrilling confrontation. The Sky, riding a wave of momentum, have demonstrated a powerful offense that thrives in a high-paced game, while the Mercury have struggled to keep up defensively. Chicago's home-court advantage amplifies their scoring ability, and with the sharp shooting of their key players, they can exploit Phoenix's defensive lapses. Our model forecasts a competitive margin, but the Sky's depth and experience position them to pull away in crucial moments. Expect them to utilize their transition game effectively, creating mismatches that lead to easy buckets. With the Sky likely to establish a commanding lead, betting on them to cover the alternate spread of 11.5 seems not just sensible, but a strategic move to capitalize on their potential dominance in this high-stakes matchup. It was priced at -455 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.20 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chicago Sky to Win (+115)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing

As the Chicago Sky gear up to host the Phoenix Mercury at Wintrust Arena, this matchup has all the makings of a pivotal battle. The Sky have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly on their home court, where their offense thrives in transition and can catch opponents off guard. The Mercury, meanwhile, have struggled to find consistency, especially away from home, which could spell trouble against a Sky team that's eager to capitalize on any defensive lapses. With a faster pace favoring Chicago's dynamic playmakers, expect them to push the tempo, exploiting Phoenix's weaknesses. The Sky's blend of sharp shooting and tenacious defense should give them the upper hand. At +115, taking a chance on the Sky to claim victory in front of their fans feels like a smart move, especially considering their recent form and the crucial playoff implications riding on this game. Trust in the Sky to soar above their rivals tonight! It was priced at +115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

DeWanna Bonner Over 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Chicago Sky play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Tuesday 4 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is DeWanna Bonner Over 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists. That is a player points, rebounds and assists combined bet. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. It is on at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 Assists (-167)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Chicago Sky play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Tuesday 4 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 Assists. That is a player assists bet. It was priced at -167 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.00 if it lands. It is on at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

DiJonai Carrington Under 9.5 Points (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Chicago Sky play Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Tuesday 4 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is DiJonai Carrington Under 9.5 Points. That is a player points bet. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. It is on at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Chicago Sky v Phoenix Mercury. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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