Aus Open Singles: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul — Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline (-1000)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Carlos Alcaraz is a strong pick against Tommy Paul at the Australian Open, bolstered by superior serving performance and current form. Alcaraz has a first serve percentage of 65.2% and wins an impressive 81.1% of those points, significantly outperforming Paul, who has a first serve win rate of 71.2%. On second serves, Alcaraz wins 56.5% of points, while Paul is at 52.0%. Crucially, Alcaraz's pressure point performance is highlighted by his breakpoint save percentage (26.7%), which is far below Paul's (76.6%), indicating he struggles under pressure. In recent form, Alcaraz boasts a 40% win rate over his last five matches compared to Paul's 60%, but his overall serve stats suggest he can capitalize on opportunities against Paul. With an edge of 4.4% in model probability (95.3% vs. 90.9%), Alcaraz presents exceptional value at 1.1.

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