Aus Open Singles: Francisco Cerundolo vs Damir Dzumhur — Damir Dzumhur Moneyline (+296)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In the upcoming match, Damir Dzumhur presents significant value at odds of 3.96, reflecting a 29.9% edge compared to the model's 55.1% win probability. Analyzing recent form, both players have a 40% win rate over their last five matches, but Dzumhur's serve performance is notably strong. He boasts a 61% first-serve percentage and wins 65.5% of first-serve points, indicating solid service reliability. His second-serve points won rate at 42.1% further underscores his ability to capitalize on pressure situations. In contrast, Cerundolo's recent form shows vulnerability, particularly in high-pressure moments, with a 32.8% break point save rate. With Dzumhur's competitive edge in serving efficiency and ability to withstand pressure, he stands as a strong underdog on hard courts, making him a compelling moneyline pick.

Aus Open Singles: Daria Kasatkina vs Nikola Bartunkova — Daria Kasatkina Moneyline (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Daria Kasatkina is a strong pick at 1.43 against Nikola Bartunkova, showcasing superior form and serving metrics. Over her last five matches, Kasatkina has an impressive win rate of 80%, consistently winning 63.9% of her first serves and 54.8% of first-serve points. Her second-serve performance is also commendable, winning 38.5% of those points. Additionally, she has a BP save percentage of 33.9%, demonstrating resilience under pressure. In contrast, Bartunkova's recent form lacks competitive data, as her average opponents' stats are currently unavailable, indicating she may struggle against a seasoned player like Kasatkina on hard courts. With a model probability of 98% versus the implied 69.93%, the 28.1% edge further confirms Kasatkina as the value side. Her proven track record and service proficiency make her the logical choice in this matchup.

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