Winning angles for Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals. Featuring 6 team bets with value. Includes NFL best bets, spreads, totals, moneyline picks, team props.
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Under 52.5 bet on the 'totals' market for this game is supported by a number of statistics. The home team's last five games have featured an average of 48.6 points (26 scored, 22.6 conceded), while the away team's matches have seen an average of 60.8 points (28.8 scored, 32 conceded). However, when playing away, the away team's matches have averaged only 45.2 points (15 scored, 30.2 conceded), suggesting less scoring potential in this game. Furthermore, both teams' recent respective Expected Points Added (EPA) statistics, which measure the impact of each play on the score of the game, also suggest a lower scoring game. The home team's EPA difference is positive, indicating efficient scoring and defensive plays, while the away team's negative EPA difference suggests struggles in both scoring and defensive plays. This, combined with their below-average performance away, supports the Under 52.
Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals : Under 53.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
A bet on Under 53.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is rational considering the recent performances of both teams. The home team averaged 26 points per game in their last five overall games and 30.8 points in their home games. They also allowed an average of 22.6 and 23.2 points in these games respectively. The away team scored an average of 28.8 points in their last five overall games and just 15 points in their away games, allowing an average of 32 and 30.2 points in these games respectively. Moreover, the home team's recent home record is 4-1, and they have an advantage in terms of expected points added (EPA), especially in passing. The away team has a poor recent overall record (1-4) and especially poor away record (1-4), with a negative EPA differential in both situations. Considering these statistics, the combined score of the game is likely to be
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 5.5-point advantage in the spreads market, and there are several compelling reasons to back this position. Pittsburgh has a solid recent record, going 4-1 overall in their last five games, and they have averaged a positive point differential of 6.4 over this span. Their expected points added (EPA) differential is positive as well at 6.887, indicating efficient play. Meanwhile, their opponents have struggled recently, with a negative point differential of -1.6 and a negative EPA differential of -2.027 in their last five games. The away team has also been outgained in total yardage (335.8 against to 260 for), which could be a key factor in this matchup. Adding to this, the Steelers have been successful in creating turnovers, averaging 2.2 takeaways per game compared to 1.4 turnovers of their own, providing them with additional scoring opportunities. Based on these statistics,
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA +6 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers with a spread of 6 points is rooted in the statistical comparison of both teams' performance data. The home team's overall last five games show a positive point differential of 6.4 and a turnover differential of 0.8, indicating superior ball control. They also have a better home record (4-1) compared to the away team's overall record (2-3). Despite the away team having a slightly better record against the opponent in the last five matchups (3-2), the home team has a better expected points added (EPA) differential in the last five games (+6.8871), signifying a stronger offensive and defensive performance. The model edge of 0.0604 also favors the Steelers, suggesting a higher probability of them covering the spread. Therefore, the Steelers are a statistically sound bet in this matchup.
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Under 42.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Under 42.5 in the totals market for this NFL game is backed by several key statistical factors. Firstly, both teams' scoring in the last five games indicate a trend towards lower total points. The home team has scored an average of 23 points, whilst the away team scored an average of 21.2 points. This combined average of 44.2 is only slightly above the bet's threshold of 42.5, suggesting a close call. Additionally, both teams have strong defensive records, with the home team allowing only 16.6 points against and the away team 22.8, which implies a lower-scoring game. The home team's overall Expected Points Added (EPA) for the last five games is negative (-1.993), indicating inefficient offensive plays that do not contribute significantly to the team's score. Finally, both teams have a negative home-away EPA difference in the last five games, -11.260 for the home team and -
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
This bet on 'Under 44.5' in the 'totals' market for the NA vs NA game has a strong statistical basis. Firstly, the home team has a lackluster scoring record in the last five games, averaging just 24.6 points, coupled with a close points against average of 24.4 points. This culminates in an overall point difference of just 0.2 points. This gap narrows further in the last five home games, where the score against (25.6) exceeds the score for (23), leading to a negative point difference of -2.6. The away team, however, has a much better scoring average of 31.4 points, but also a lower points against average of 16.2, leading to a point difference of 15.2. Yet, their scoring ability seems to dip slightly in their away games, averaging 26 points for and 18.2 against, reducing the point difference to
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