On Sunday 9 August 2026, Steven Asplund takes on Guilherme Pat in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Steven Asplund to Win, priced at -238 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Steven Asplund to Win (-238)

Odds available at Bally Bet at time of publishing

I'm picking Steven Asplund to win against Guilherme Pat because our numbers give him a good chance to take the fight. Asplund seems to be a strong striker, and if he can keep the fight standing, he has the skills to land more effective punches. Pat might try to take it to the ground, so if Asplund can defend those takedowns, he could control the fight. Remember, anything can happen in the cage, but I like Asplund here. Just keep in mind that there's never a guarantee in fights! It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+174)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

In the UFC fight between Steven Asplund and Guilherme Pat, I'm picking the total rounds to go under 1.5. Both fighters have aggressive styles, with a focus on finishing their opponents quickly. Asplund is known for his striking, while Pat has a strong grappling game, which could lead to a quick end. Our numbers show there's a good chance this fight won't last long, and it's possible we could see a finish in the first round. Remember, fights can be unpredictable, but I think this one could be over sooner rather than later. It was priced at +174 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.40 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Steven Asplund: last five L-W-W, dropped the last 1, 22% of career wins came by knockout, 142 days since the last fight
  • Guilherme Pat: last five L-W, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 121 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Steven Asplund v Guilherme Pat. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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