On Sunday 9 August 2026, Amanda Lemos takes on Alexia Thainara in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 2.5 Total Rounds, priced at +165 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 2.5 Total Rounds (+165)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Amanda Lemos and Alexia Thainara are both exciting fighters, and they can finish fights quickly. Lemos is known for her striking power, while Thainara might need to rely on her grappling to stay competitive. With their fighting styles and our model suggesting they might combine for just over one round, betting on under 2.5 rounds feels like a good chance. Keep in mind, anything can happen in the octagon, so while this looks promising, it's not a guarantee. Enjoy the fight! It was priced at +165 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alexia Thainara -3.5 on the Line (-105)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

In this fight between Amanda Lemos and Alexia Thainara, I think Alexia has a solid chance to win by more than three and a half points. She's strong on the ground and can really control the pace, while Amanda is more of a striker. If Alexia can take the fight to the mat, she might score some big points. That said, it's still a tough matchup, and anything can happen in the octagon, so it's not a sure thing. Just keep in mind that Alexia's style gives her a good shot to cover that spread. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Amanda Lemos to Win (+235)

Odds available at Matchbook at time of publishing

I'm going with Amanda Lemos to win her fight against Alexia Thainara. Lemos is a strong striker who can really land some powerful punches, and she knows how to keep the pressure on her opponents. Thainara might try to take it to the ground, but if Lemos can stay on her feet, she has a good chance to land some big shots. This bet is a bit of a long shot, but Lemos has a real chance to pull off the win. Just remember, anything can happen in a fight! It was priced at +235 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $33.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Amanda Lemos: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 14% of career wins came by knockout, 144 days since the last fight
  • Alexia Thainara: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 130 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Amanda Lemos v Alexia Thainara. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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