How to use this page Start with picks that have a higher Model Prob and a positive Calc. Edge. Check the market type (match winner, line, totals, etc) under the recommendation. Compare decimal and American prices in the footer to your bookmaker. If the market moves, refresh. Edge changes when odds change.
Definitions used on every card Label Meaning Model Prob Estimated chance of the outcome, from simulations and features. Calc. Edge Model probability minus implied probability from odds. Positive is +EV. DEC Decimal odds format. US American odds format.
Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues --:-- RECOMMENDED PICK Sydney Swans -23.5 (Spread) Model Prob 72.6% Calc. Edge 19.9%
Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues --:-- RECOMMENDED PICK Carlton Blues 23.5 (Spread) Model Prob 72.1% Calc. Edge 19.5%
Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats --:-- PRO SELECTION LOCKED ASSET High confidence interval Model Prob Calc. Edge 7.6% UNLOCK ALPHA
Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats --:-- PRO SELECTION LOCKED ASSET High confidence interval Model Prob Calc. Edge 4.6% UNLOCK ALPHA
Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats --:-- PRO SELECTION LOCKED ASSET High confidence interval Model Prob Calc. Edge 4.1% UNLOCK ALPHA
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks --:-- PRO SELECTION LOCKED ASSET High confidence interval Model Prob Calc. Edge 7.6% UNLOCK ALPHA
Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs --:-- PRO SELECTION LOCKED ASSET High confidence interval Model Prob Calc. Edge 15.3% UNLOCK ALPHA
St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies --:-- PRO SELECTION LOCKED ASSET High confidence interval Model Prob Calc. Edge 17.9% UNLOCK ALPHA
St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies --:-- PRO SELECTION LOCKED ASSET High confidence interval Model Prob Calc. Edge 6.3% UNLOCK ALPHA
How is the edge calculated? Edge is the difference between our Model Probability and the implied probability of the bookmaker’s odds. Positive edge indicates a mathematically favorable price. In short: Edge = P(model) - P(implied).
Is this data live? Yes. Our backend refreshes when significant market moves or relevant updates occur, so the grid stays aligned to current pricing.
What is actuarial betting? It is the application of risk assessment mathematics, commonly used in insurance and finance, to sports markets to estimate true probabilities and identify mispriced prices.
Why can the same game change ranking during the day? Ranking is driven by price. If odds move, the implied probability changes, so the calculated edge changes too. That can move a pick up or down the grid.