Today's AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet

AFL 2026 Updated: 25 April 2026 Lines from all major AU bookmakers

Quick answers — AFL props explained

What is an AFL player prop bet?

An AFL player prop bet is a wager on an individual player's statistical performance in a match, rather than the match result. Common AFL prop markets include disposals over/under, goal scorer anytime, marks, tackles, hitouts, and fantasy points scored.

What do the hit rate columns mean?

Hit rate (HR) shows how often a player has cleared the bookmaker's line in their last 5 or 10 games. A hit rate of 4/5 means the player beat the line in 4 of their last 5 games. L5 HR (Overall) covers all recent games; L5 HR (H/A) filters by whether the player was home or away — matching today's context.

What does model edge mean in AFL props?

Model edge is the difference between Bet Better's simulated win probability and the bookmaker's implied probability derived from the odds. A positive edge (shown in green) means the model estimates a higher probability of the outcome occurring than what the bookmaker's price implies — indicating a value bet. Pro subscribers see exact edge percentages.

AFL Player Props — Frequently Asked Questions

What is this AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet?

The Bet Better AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet is a daily data tool that aggregates player prop lines from all major Australian bookmakers and displays them alongside historical performance data. For every line, you can see the player's last 5 and last 10 game averages, hit rates against the line in different contexts (overall, home/away, vs today's opponent), and the Bet Better model's edge rating for Pro subscribers.

The cheat sheet is updated daily before the first game of the day and refreshed as new lines become available from bookmakers throughout the morning.

How do I read the AFL disposal prop lines?

Each disposal prop row shows the bookmaker's line (e.g. 27.5), whether you're betting Over or Under, the price (decimal odds), and the historical context. If a midfielder's L5 Overall average is 31.2 against a line of 27.5, the average column appears green — indicating the player's recent form is above the line. The hit rate columns then tell you how consistently they've actually cleared that level of line across recent games.

Use the context-specific averages (vs Opponent and H/A) to refine your decision — a player might average 31 overall but only 24 against today's opponent's defensive structure, which is the more predictive figure.

What AFL player props have the most betting value?

Disposal and hitout props offer the most consistent betting value in AFL because they are the most predictable stats — high-usage midfielders and ruckmen accumulate these stats in patterns that bookmakers frequently misprice, especially for backup players and role changers. Goal scorer markets are the most volatile due to the randomness of forward entry and marking contest outcomes.

Weather is the biggest external variable: rain significantly depresses marks and reduces scoring, making Marks Under and Tackles Over counter-intuitive wet-weather plays worth tracking through this tool's weather-filtered data.

How often is the AFL prop data updated?

Lines are refreshed daily from all major Australian licensed bookmakers, with the initial load occurring each morning before the first AFL game. As bookmakers adjust their lines throughout the day in response to public betting volume and injury news, the cheat sheet updates to reflect the most current available prices. The historical averages and hit rates are recalculated after each game completes.

What does the green and red colouring mean?

Green in the average columns means the player's recent average is above the bookmaker's line — a favourable indicator for Over bets. Red means the average is below the line — a favourable indicator for Under bets. For hit rate columns, green means the player has beaten the line at a rate higher than the bookmaker's implied probability, and red means below that implied rate.

Important: for Under bets, red average columns are actually a positive signal. Always align the colour with your bet direction before acting on it.

What is model edge and how is it calculated?

Model edge is the percentage difference between Bet Better's Monte Carlo simulation probability and the bookmaker's implied probability derived from the market price. A model probability of 62% against a bookmaker implied probability of 52.6% (from $1.90 odds) would show a +9.4% edge. This is a Pro subscriber feature that helps identify which lines are most mispriced relative to Bet Better's simulated outcomes.

The edge calculation uses 20,000+ Monte Carlo simulations per player per market, incorporating recent form, opponent defensive ratings, home/away splits, and weather-adjusted scoring models.

Can I filter AFL props by market type?

Yes — use the Market filter above the data table to view only a specific prop type such as Disposals, Marks, Tackles, Goals, Hitouts, or any other available market. You can also click any game chip to filter the entire table to only show players from that specific match. Both filters can be used simultaneously.

What bookmakers are included in the AFL prop cheat sheet?

The cheat sheet pulls lines from all major Australian licensed bookmakers including Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Pointsbet, Neds, and Unibet where AFL player prop markets are available. The best available price across all bookmakers is displayed for each line. All bookmakers featured are licensed under Australian state and territory gambling regulations.