Today's AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet - September 28, 2025

Your Ultimate Guide to AFL Player Prop Betting & Cheat Sheet

Welcome to Bet Better's AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet – your daily resource for making more informed decisions on Australian Rules Football player performance markets. Player props are an exciting way to bet on the AFL, focusing on the statistical achievements of individual players rather than just the outcome of the match. This guide will help you understand what AFL player props are, how to use our detailed cheat sheet, and offer some strategies to get started.

What Are AFL Player Props?

AFL player props (short for "proposition bets") are wagers made on the likelihood of an individual player achieving specific statistical milestones during a game. Instead of betting on whether a team will win or lose, you're betting on, for example, how many disposals a midfielder will get, if a forward will kick a certain number of goals, or if a ruckman will dominate the hitouts.

These bets are popular because they allow punters to leverage their knowledge of specific players, their roles, form, and matchups. If you follow player performances closely, props can offer great betting opportunities. For more general betting information, check out our AFL Betting Guide or our page on AFL Prop Bets.

Decoding Bet Better's AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet

Our AFL Cheat Sheet is designed to give you a statistical edge. Here’s a breakdown of the information you’ll find:

Understanding the Data Columns

• Player: The full name of the player.
• Team: Abbreviation of the player's AFL team.
• Market: The specific statistic you are betting on (e.g., Disposals, Goals Scored, Marks).
• Line: The benchmark number set by bookmakers for Over/Under bets. For instance, if a player's Disposals line is 24.5, you bet on whether they will get Over or Under that number.
• O/U: Indicates if the displayed odds are for "Over" or "Under" the set Line.
• Price: The odds for the bet. These are typically shown in decimal format for Australian customers but can be understood in terms of implied probability. Higher prices often indicate less likely outcomes.
• Book: The bookmaker offering these odds. Comparing AFL odds across different bookies is a key strategy.
• Edge (Pro Feature): This is Bet Better's proprietary model's calculated percentage advantage (or disadvantage) against the implied probability derived from the bookmaker's odds. A positive edge suggests our model identifies potential value in the bet.
• Avg (L5 Overall): The player's average for that specific statistic in their last 5 games played, regardless of opponent or venue.
• Avg (L5 vs Opp): The player's average for that statistic in their last 5 games played specifically against the current opponent. This helps identify historical performance trends.
• Avg (L5 vs Opp H/A): The player's average for that statistic against the current opponent over their last 5 encounters, but only considering games played in the same Home or Away situation as today's game. This adds another layer of context.
• Avg (L5 Overall H/A): The player's average for that statistic in their last 5 games overall, filtered by whether the game was played at home or away, matching today's specific context.
• HR (L5/L10 Overall): "Hit Rate." This shows how often the player has gone Over (or Under, depending on the market context if specified) the *current line* in their last 5 or 10 games overall. It's displayed as "X/Y" (e.g., "3/5" means they achieved the outcome in 3 of those 5 games).
• HR (L5/L10 H/A): "Hit Rate" similar to above, but only for games played in today's specific Home or Away context for that player.

Interpreting Colors and Indicators

Our cheat sheet uses color-coding to help you quickly identify potentially interesting statistical comparisons:

• Averages (Avg Columns):
  • GREEN: Indicates the player's recent average for that stat is significantly higher than the current betting Line. This might suggest an "Over" bet could be favorable.
  • RED: Indicates the player's recent average for that stat is significantly lower than the current betting Line. This might suggest an "Under" bet could be favorable.
  • Crucial Note: Always consider the market (Over/Under). If you are looking at an "Under" bet, a RED average (player average is below the line) is actually what you'd be looking for as a statistically favorable indicator for the Under.
• Hit Rates (HR Columns): Colors here compare the player's historical success rate (e.g., how often they've exceeded 25.5 disposals) against the implied probability from the bookmaker's odds for the current line.
  • GREEN: The player's historical hit rate for this line is better than what the current odds suggest.
  • RED: The player's historical hit rate for this line is worse than what the current odds suggest.
• Edge Column (Pro Feature):
  • GREEN: Our model calculates a positive edge (typically >2%) against the implied probability of the odds, suggesting potential value.
  • RED: Our model calculates a negative edge (typically < -2%), suggesting the odds may not offer value.

What is Implied Probability? It's the likelihood of an event happening as converted from the bookmaker's odds. For instance, decimal odds of $2.00 imply a 50% probability (calculated as 1 / decimal odds). Understanding this helps assess if a bet offers value. For a deeper dive, see our guide on understanding betting odds.

Key AFL Player Stats for Prop Betting

To successfully bet on AFL player props, it's vital to understand the key statistics and what influences them:

• Disposals: The cornerstone of AFL stats, representing a player's total Kicks + Handballs. High-disposal players ("ball magnets") are typically midfielders or attacking defenders. Their numbers can be affected by their role, opposition tagging, and game style.
• Marks: Catching a kicked ball that has travelled at least 15 metres and has not touched the ground or another player. Key forwards (Marks Inside 50, Contested Marks) and intercepting defenders are often good targets for these props. Ground size and weather can play a role.
• Goals Scored: Primarily for forwards, but goal-kicking midfielders can also be valuable. Consider a player's accuracy, recent goal-scoring form, the quality of supply from their midfield, and their direct opponent.
• Tackles: A key defensive action. Inside midfielders, defensive forwards, and players known for their pressure are often high in tackle counts. Game script (e.g., if their team is without the ball a lot) can influence this.
• Hitouts: Specific to ruckmen. Their ability to win the tap and give their midfielders first use (Hitouts to Advantage) is crucial. Consider the opposing ruckman.
• Fantasy Points: Many bookmakers offer props on AFL Fantasy scores (or similar scoring systems like SuperCoach). These are a composite of many stats (kicks, handballs, marks, tackles, goals, etc.) and require a holistic view of a player's potential game impact.
• Other Common Markets: Look out for props on Clearances, Inside 50s, Metres Gained, Contested Possessions, Uncontested Possessions, and more. Each requires understanding player roles and game dynamics.

Explore more on how to research these in our guide to analyzing player performance.

Basic Strategies for AFL Player Prop Success

While our cheat sheet provides valuable data, successful prop betting often involves additional research and strategy:

• Player Form & Role: Is the player in good form? Has their role within the team changed recently (e.g., more midfield time, playing deeper in defence)? Check recent AFL news for insights.
• Matchup Analysis: How does the player perform against their direct opponent or the opposing team's style? Some teams give up more disposals to midfielders, while others are vulnerable to key forwards.
• Venue & Weather: Wet weather can significantly reduce disposals, marks, and scoring, potentially favoring "Under" bets on these stats but sometimes increasing tackles. Ground dimensions can also influence stats.
• Line Shopping & Value: The odds for the same prop can vary between bookmakers. Our cheat sheet shows odds from one provider, but always look for the best value.
• Bankroll Management: Crucial for long-term success. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Our bankroll management guide offers key principles.
• Responsible Gambling: Always gamble responsibly. If you need assistance, resources are available on our Responsible Gambling page.

For more tips, check out our AFL betting tips and general effective betting strategies.

Why Use the Bet Better AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet?

We consolidate a vast amount of player data, recent form, historical matchups, and bookmaker odds into an easy-to-use format. This saves you hours of research. Our Pro subscribers also get access to the "Edge" feature, leveraging our statistical models to pinpoint potential value bets. Our goal is to equip you with the information to bet smarter, not harder, on AFL player props.

Ready to find your next winning prop? Explore today's AFL picks and best bets!