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Today's AFL Picks & Predictions

AFL picks powered by Monte Carlo simulation and machine learning. Every selection includes model probability, market edge, and readable reasoning — covering moneyline, line, totals and player props. Updated daily as markets move.

Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use AFL Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFLESS vs. MEL 2026-06-13 03:15
Show Picks
Kysaiah Pickett Under 24.5 Disposals (Melbourne)
Probability 72.2%
Edge 19.0%
Best Odds -114

Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) Under 24.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Kysaiah Pickett's recent form at home, it's clear he's been a force to be reckoned with, averaging 18 disposals per game over his last five outings. However, facing off against Essendon, his numbers have dipped slightly to around 16 disposals. Pickett's contested possessions have been solid at 8 per game, but Essendon has been successful in limiting his overall impact. With an average of 13.2 kicks and 4.8 handballs in his last five home games, he's been a key playmaker for Melbourne. Despite his impressive metres gained (393.6 on average), turnovers have been a concern at 3.8 per game. Pickett's disposals efficiency of 66.5% is notable, but Essendon's defensive pressure might force him into more errors. Expect Pickett to be influential, but the under on 24.5 disposals seems like a safe bet given his recent performances against Essendon.

Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 18.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 16.7%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 16.5%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 15.4%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.2%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Spread
Probability
Edge 10.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Total Points
Probability
Edge 7.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Head to Head
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLWCE vs. NM 2026-06-13 06:15
Show Picks
Luke Davies-Uniacke Over 22.5 Disposals (North Melbourne)
Probability 80.6%
Edge 19.6%
Best Odds -156

Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to hitting the Over on disposals, Luke Davies-Uniacke is a prime candidate to light up the stat sheet for the North Melbourne Kangaroos against the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium. Over his last 5 home games, Davies-Uniacke has been a possession magnet, averaging a stellar 27.4 disposals per game, comfortably above the line of 22.5. His ability to find the footy in contested situations (10.2 contested possessions avg) and maintain a high disposal efficiency (78.6% avg) sets him apart as a reliable ball distributor. Against the Eagles, he's even more prolific, averaging 26.8 disposals over his last 5 encounters. With a model prediction of 26.8 disposals and a solid hit rate, backing Davies-Uniacke to surpass 22.5 disposals is a smart move for footy punters looking to snag a win.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points
Probability
Edge 19.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 11.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 10.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 1.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
AFLSYD vs. PA 2026-06-13 09:35
Show Picks
Joel Amartey Over 0.5 Goals (Sydney Swans)
Probability 93.3%
Edge 19.8%
Best Odds -278

Joel Amartey (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Joel Amartey has been lighting up the scoreboard lately, bagging an impressive average of 2.2 goals in his last five away games. With a sharpshooting goal accuracy of 68% and hitting the scoreboard consistently, he's a real threat in front of the big sticks. Amartey's ability to impact the game is evident through his 5.2 score involvements per game, showing he's not just a goal kicker but also actively involved in setting up plays. Facing Port Adelaide, where he averages 0 goals in his last five matchups, he's due for a breakout performance. With his current form boasting a perfect 5/5 hit rate in away games and a 3-game scoring streak overall, backing Amartey to snag at least one goal in this clash is a bet that's brimming with value and potential for profit.

Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Head to Head
Probability
Edge 18.0%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 15.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 14.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 13.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 12.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 10.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.9%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Total Points
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLBRI vs. RIC 2026-06-14 03:10
Show Picks
Jarrod Berry Under 20.5 Disposals (Brisbane Lions)
Probability 71.9%
Edge 18.7%
Best Odds -114

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jarrod Berry hitting the under on 20.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against the Richmond Tigers, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five away games, Berry has averaged 18.2 disposals, falling below the 20.5 line. His recent form is solid but not quite at the level required to consistently surpass that mark. With an average of 6 contested possessions and 11.8 kicks in away games, Berry's stats indicate a player who contributes but may not dominate possession-wise. Facing Richmond, where his average disposals drop to 16.5, the signs point to a tough outing. Berry's recent hit rate of 5/5 for staying under 20.5 disposals further supports the rationale for expecting him to fall short in this game. Bet wisely on Berry to stay under the line in this one.

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.2%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 9.3%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Goals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
AFLGWS vs. STK 2026-06-14 05:15
Show Picks
Max Gruzewski Over 0.5 Goals (GWS GIANTS)
Probability 90.6%
Edge 18.1%
Best Odds -263

Max Gruzewski (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Max Gruzewski. This guy's been on an absolute tear lately, snatching goals left, right, and center. In his last five away games, he's been averaging nearly two goals a match, with a sharpshooting accuracy of 65%. When it comes to facing off against St Kilda, he's been even hotter, averaging two goals per game in their recent encounters. But it's not just about putting it through the big sticks for Max. He's a key player in setting up scoring opportunities too, with solid marks inside 50 and a high rate of score involvements. With his current hot streak of six games hitting the mark, including a perfect 3/3 in his last away games, Max is in prime form to keep the goals flowing when the Greater Western Sydney Giants take on St Kilda. So, when the line is set at Over 0.5 goals for Max Gruzewski, it's a bet that looks primed to pay off come game day.

St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals
Probability
Edge 12.8%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.7%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Head to Head
Probability
Edge 9.1%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals
Probability
Edge 8.6%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.1%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.1%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals
Probability
Edge 6.7%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.2%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.9%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Spread
Probability
Edge 4.8%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.2%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
St Kilda Saints vs. Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals
Probability
Edge 0.9%

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. AFL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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