Dylan Cease (SDP) Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-204)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 18.5 outs recorded bet for Dylan Cease is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Cease's last five overall outings average only 15.2 outs, which is significantly lower than the line set at 18.5. His average innings pitched is also below the benchmark, at 4.9. Even when playing at home, his outs average is only slightly higher at 18.4, still below the line. Against this particular opponent, the Kansas City Royals, his outs average drops to 16.2. Furthermore, his current overall hit streak is at 3, indicating a potential struggle in recent performances. While his home hit streak is at 9, it's important to note that hit streaks can often be volatile and are not always indicative of a pitcher's ability to record outs. Therefore, the under bet seems like a statistically sound choice.

Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-400)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Mitch Keller to allow over 0.5 walks is a promising choice based on his recent performance data. On average, Keller has allowed 2 walks per game overall recently, and even at home, this average increases slightly to 2.2. This is well above the line set at 0.5, indicating a high probability that he will allow at least one walk in the upcoming game. While Keller has not allowed any walks against the Rangers in his last five matchups, his overall and home averages suggest a different pattern. Additionally, Keller's current hit streak at home is only 2 games, compared to an overall streak of 8 games, suggesting his performance at home is not as strong. Therefore, statistical data supports the bet for Keller to allow over 0.5 walks.

Sonny Gray (STL) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Sonny Gray for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a solid option due to his recent performance data. In his last five games overall, Gray has averaged 0.8 walks per game, and this number increases to 1.0 when playing at home. Moreover, when facing the Reds, his walks allowed average further escalates to 1.7. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he will have ample opportunities to concede a walk. Furthermore, Gray is currently on a hit streak, both overall and at home, indicating a higher likelihood of allowing a walk. All these statistics point towards a higher probability of Gray giving up at least one walk in the upcoming game against the Reds, making the Over 0.5 bet a solid choice.

Aaron Civale (MIL) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-312)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Aaron Civale's recent performance data suggests that he is a strong candidate for achieving over 2.5 strikeouts. His last five overall games show an average of 3.4 strikeouts, which is above the line set for this bet. Furthermore, when playing away, his average remains at 3 strikeouts. Even more compelling is his performance against the Blue Jays, with an average of 5 strikeouts in the last five games. Despite the current hit streak being zero, the consistent performance in his recent games, both overall and specifically against the Blue Jays, indicates a strong likelihood of Civale exceeding 2.5 strikeouts. Therefore, based on Civale's demonstrated performance, the bet for over 2.5 strikeouts is a solid choice.

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ryan Pepiot for under 2.5 in the Pitcher Earned Runs market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Pepiot's last five games against the Detroit Tigers have shown an average of just 1.3 earned runs, well below the bet line. Moreover, his performance at home is even more impressive, with an average of only 1 earned run. This trend is supported by his high average innings pitched and outs at home, indicating he's been effective in controlling the opposition's scoring. Additionally, Pepiot is currently on an 8-game home hit streak, further demonstrating his strong performance when playing at home. Overall, the statistics suggest a high likelihood of Pepiot keeping his earned runs under 2.5 in the upcoming game.

Jarren Duran (BOS) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jarren Duran for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is supported by his recent performance data. Duran's last five overall and away games show an average of 0 and 0.2 stolen bases respectively, indicating a low frequency of successful steals. Additionally, his performance against the Giants also demonstrates a low average of 0.2 stolen bases. His current away hit streak is only 1, suggesting that his opportunity for stealing bases in an away game may be limited. Furthermore, Duran has not been caught stealing in his last five games, which could imply a cautious approach to base stealing. These statistics collectively suggest a lower likelihood of Duran achieving more than 0.5 stolen bases in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

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