Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Tuesday 11/04 (Dak Prescott Focus)

Betting on Dak Prescott to rush for over 7.5 yards against the Arizona Cardinals may seem risky considering his recent rushing performance. Prescott has not hit this mark in his last five games overall nor in his last five home games. His overall hit rate is less than 50% (21/48), and his recent hit rate is even lower. However, when we look at the specific matchup against the Cardinals, Prescott has managed to exceed 7.5 rushing yards in all his encounters. His hit rate against the Cardinals is 100% (1/1) in the last three, five, ten, and twenty games, as well as overall. This suggests that something about the Cardinals' defense may play to Prescott's rushing strengths. Despite recent performance, this specific matchup could favor Prescott's rushing. However, the model edge is small (0.078), indicating this bet is still quite uncertain.

Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Statistically, Dak Prescott's recent performance does not make a strong case for backing the Over 7.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market. His overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games has been low (0/3, 0/5, 1/10, 3/20). This suggests that he has not been achieving more than 7.5 rushing yards in most recent games. His home hit rate is slightly better, particularly over the last 20 games where he's hit 10/20, but it's still only a 50% success rate. Interestingly, Prescott has a perfect hit rate against the Arizona Cardinals (1/1), but this is based on a single game, which is not a robust enough sample size. His current hit streak is also at 0. The model edge of 0.07 is also relatively low, indicating the statistical model sees only a slight advantage

KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

There are a few statistical factors that make "Under 16.5" a solid bet for KaVontae Turpin's reception yards in the upcoming Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals game. Firstly, Turpin's recent performance hasn't been impressive. His last 5 games average doesn't suggest he'll surpass the 16.5 outcome point. Secondly, when we look at the overall season, his hit rate for going under this mark is high, showing a consistent pattern of underperformance in the reception yards market. Lastly, the model edge at 0.059 indicates there's a slight advantage in betting under, suggesting the prediction model sees value here. Although the Cardinals' defense might be considered, Turpin's individual performance statistics are the key factor in this betting rationale. Please remember, sports betting always involves risks, so wager responsibly.

KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

When betting on KaVontae Turpin to go under 15.5 receiving yards in the Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals game, one must consider Turpin's recent performance and trends. Turpin's last five games provide a clear indication of his capabilities on the field. If his receiving yards in these games have consistently been below the set point of 15.5, it boosts the rationale for betting under. Furthermore, if he has a low hit rate or is on a streak of games where his receiving yards are under 15.5, it further strengthens the case. The model edge of approximately 0.048 is relatively small, indicating that the betting market is fairly efficient in this case. However, a positive model edge does suggest a slight advantage in betting under 15.5. Overall, the bet would be based on Turpin's past performance and the statistical trends observed.

Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 4.5 Player rush yds alternate (-189)

Betting on Dak Prescott to rush for over 4.5 yards may seem relatively risky given his recent performances. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games has been less than impressive, with a current hit streak of 0. However, there are a few factors that could tilt the odds in his favour. Firstly, Prescott tends to perform better at home. His home hit rate in the last 20 games is 60% (12/20), which is significantly higher than his overall hit rate. Secondly, he has a perfect hit rate against the Arizona Cardinals, having surpassed 4.5 yards in every game he has played against them. Although the model's edge is very slim at just over 1%, the combination of Prescott's home performance and his track record against the Cardinals could potentially justify a bet on him to rush for over 4.5 yards.