Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+207)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Dak Prescott to exceed 14.5 rushing yards in the game against the Arizona Cardinals might seem a risky proposition given his recent performance and hit rates. Prescott has a current hit streak of zero, both overall and at home, indicating that he hasn't been surpassing this rushing yard total in his recent games. His last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games all show low hit rates with him only surpassing 14.5 rushing yards on 1/10 of his last 10 games and 2/20 of his last 20 games. However, when specifically facing Arizona, he has a 100% hit rate in his last encounters, which could suggest that Prescott's playing style might be especially effective against the Cardinals' defense. Nonetheless, considering his overall hit rate of 14/48, this bet is likely to be high risk despite the specific trend against Arizona.
Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, Dak Prescott's recent performance does not make a strong case for backing the Over 7.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market. His overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games has been low (0/3, 0/5, 1/10, 3/20). This suggests that he has not been achieving more than 7.5 rushing yards in most recent games. His home hit rate is slightly better, particularly over the last 20 games where he's hit 10/20, but it's still only a 50% success rate. Interestingly, Prescott has a perfect hit rate against the Arizona Cardinals (1/1), but this is based on a single game, which is not a robust enough sample size. His current hit streak is also at 0. The model edge of 0.07 is also relatively low, indicating the statistical model sees only a slight advantage
KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
When betting on KaVontae Turpin to go under 15.5 receiving yards in the Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals game, one must consider Turpin's recent performance and trends. Turpin's last five games provide a clear indication of his capabilities on the field. If his receiving yards in these games have consistently been below the set point of 15.5, it boosts the rationale for betting under. Furthermore, if he has a low hit rate or is on a streak of games where his receiving yards are under 15.5, it further strengthens the case. The model edge of approximately 0.048 is relatively small, indicating that the betting market is fairly efficient in this case. However, a positive model edge does suggest a slight advantage in betting under 15.5. Overall, the bet would be based on Turpin's past performance and the statistical trends observed.
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