Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Dak Prescott to rush for over 7.5 yards against the Arizona Cardinals may seem risky considering his recent rushing performance. Prescott has not hit this mark in his last five games overall nor in his last five home games. His overall hit rate is less than 50% (21/48), and his recent hit rate is even lower. However, when we look at the specific matchup against the Cardinals, Prescott has managed to exceed 7.5 rushing yards in all his encounters. His hit rate against the Cardinals is 100% (1/1) in the last three, five, ten, and twenty games, as well as overall. This suggests that something about the Cardinals' defense may play to Prescott's rushing strengths. Despite recent performance, this specific matchup could favor Prescott's rushing. However, the model edge is small (0.078), indicating this bet is still quite uncertain.
Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, Dak Prescott's recent performance does not make a strong case for backing the Over 7.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market. His overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games has been low (0/3, 0/5, 1/10, 3/20). This suggests that he has not been achieving more than 7.5 rushing yards in most recent games. His home hit rate is slightly better, particularly over the last 20 games where he's hit 10/20, but it's still only a 50% success rate. Interestingly, Prescott has a perfect hit rate against the Arizona Cardinals (1/1), but this is based on a single game, which is not a robust enough sample size. His current hit streak is also at 0. The model edge of 0.07 is also relatively low, indicating the statistical model sees only a slight advantage
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals : NA Moneyline (+146)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on the Arizona Cardinals in the 'h2h' market is a statistically sound choice. The Cardinals have had superior performance in their last five games compared to their opponent. They've averaged a higher score (34.4 vs 21.2), maintained a positive point differential (+2.8 vs -2.6), and demonstrated more effective pass plays (EPA for 12.11 vs 0.91). The Cardinals also have a better home record (3-2 vs 1-4) and have been able to gain more total yards per game (378.4 vs 320.6). While they have lost in their most recent matchup against this opponent, their overall stronger performance indicates a higher chance of winning this time. Their model edge of 0.0595 further supports the bet on the Cardinals. This means the betting market might undervalue the Cardinals, so betting on them could offer good value.
KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
There are a few statistical factors that make "Under 16.5" a solid bet for KaVontae Turpin's reception yards in the upcoming Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals game. Firstly, Turpin's recent performance hasn't been impressive. His last 5 games average doesn't suggest he'll surpass the 16.5 outcome point. Secondly, when we look at the overall season, his hit rate for going under this mark is high, showing a consistent pattern of underperformance in the reception yards market. Lastly, the model edge at 0.059 indicates there's a slight advantage in betting under, suggesting the prediction model sees value here. Although the Cardinals' defense might be considered, Turpin's individual performance statistics are the key factor in this betting rationale. Please remember, sports betting always involves risks, so wager responsibly.
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals : NA Moneyline (+145)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Arizona Cardinals in the head-to-head (h2h) market seems to be a reasonable one when considering the recent performance data. The Cardinals have a higher score for both overall and home averages over the last 5 games compared to their opponents, with the home score averaging 33.8 points, which is significantly higher than the away team's overall average of 21.2 points. This advantage is also reflected in the Expected Points Added (EPA) data, with the Cardinals having a positive EPA difference in both overall and home games, whereas the away team has a negative EPA difference in their overall performance. The Cardinals also have a better turnover differential, indicating a more disciplined and efficient team. Even though the Cardinals have a losing record against their opponent in their last 5 encounters, the recent form and statistical advantages suggest a good chance for the Cardinals to win this game.
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals : Over 53.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The reasoning for betting on Over 53.5 in the totals market for this game is largely based on the recent high-scoring performance of the home team, coupled with the defensive weaknesses of the away team. On average, the home team has scored 34.4 points per game in their last five games, while conceding an average of 31.6 points. This combined score of 66 is significantly higher than the outcome point of 53.5. Furthermore, the home team's Expected Points Added (EPA) for and against also supports a high-scoring game, with a positive EPA difference of 3.82494080222243. This suggests the team's offensive plays have been more effective than the opposition's defense in recent games. On the other hand, the away team has an average combined score of 45 in their last five games and a negative EPA difference of -2.96580866887357, indicating a weaker defensive performance. Overall,
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