Kayshon Boutte (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+225)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistics for Kayshon Boutte suggest a cautious approach while betting on him to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. Boutte's recent performance trends do not favor him scoring a touchdown. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games has been 0, 0, 1, and 3 respectively. This extends to his home games as well, where his hit rate for the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games has been 0, 1, 2, and 2 respectively. Furthermore, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, is zero. Although the model suggests a positive edge of 0.19461102652965, these rates indicate that Boutte's probability of scoring a touchdown is low based on his recent performance. Therefore, it may be risky to bet on Boutte scoring a touchdown in this game
Austin Hooper (NE) Under 1.5 Receptions (-135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under bet on Austin Hooper for under 1.5 receptions in the New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons game is supported by his recent performance and hit rates. Over his last five games, Hooper has only hit the over 1.5 receptions mark twice (a hit rate of 2/5), and his hit rate drops to 1/3 over his last three games. Looking at a broader sample size, Hooper's overall hit rate for over 1.5 receptions is 22/57, less than 40%. In home games, his hit rate is slightly better at 12/28, but still less than 50%. Hooper is also currently on a hit streak of zero, indicating that he has not recently been surpassing this mark. The statistical data suggests that the under 1.5 receptions bet for Hooper is a reasonable one.
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -4.5 Point Spread (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The New England Patriots are favored by 4.5 points in the 'spreads' market, and the data supports this outcome. The Patriots have an impressive home record over their last five games, going 5-0 overall and 3-2 at home. They've outscored their opponents by a significant margin, with a home score-for average of 30.6 points versus a score-against average of 15.6 points. The Patriots also have a positive turnover differential, which indicates they've been effective in both executing plays and avoiding mistakes. In contrast, the away team has struggled, with a negative point differential over the last five games and a 2-3 record both overall and on the road. They've been outscored by their opponents and have a negative turnover differential. Given these factors, the Patriots' strong home performance and the away team's struggles on the road, the bet on New England Patriots -4.5 seems statistically solid.
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